greg
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quote:
Originally posted by Wheels
the EAFE in U.S.dollars is only down .05%.
This was correct; where did you find that number?
Thanks
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Thu Apr 21, 2005 1:01 am |
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Wheels
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Location: Nashua NH
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Go to this site - http://www.msci.com/equity/index2.html
Best I can figure it updates some time in the mid afternoon. It's about the best reflection of what our I fund is going to post that I have found. Someone posted it on Tom's site.
BTW - the Nikkei is down 2.4% by midsession - tomorrow is going to sting.
Dave
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Thu Apr 21, 2005 3:35 am |
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greg
Senior Member
Cash: $ 127.49
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Location: One Monkey Don't Stop No Show
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quote:
Originally posted by Wheels
Go to this site - http://www.msci.com/equity/index2.html
BTW - the Nikkei is down 2.4% by midsession - tomorrow is going to sting.
I should have known, I moved 5% from G from I effective COB Weds for a short term play.
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Thu Apr 21, 2005 4:17 am |
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martyfoley
Senior Member
Cash: $ 66.02
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Joined: 18 Mar 2005
Location: Northeast USA
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| To Early To Tell! |
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Going 100%G today for Tomorrow. Exiting the F-fund as it looks to be topping here. It appears that there are more sellers as the markets rally than there are buyers. I would get enthused should the Dow go above 10,200 but for now I'll let other investors try and build this base. The I-fund appears to building another base, but it still remains to be seen whether it will hold and whether the buyers come forging back in. Marty.
Top Dog for March and May 06!
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Thu Apr 21, 2005 3:23 pm |
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rangerbob
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Location: arizona
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greetings all.
bob's the name, and panic is my game. i've been watching my tsp account underperform/stall/nosedive for months -- years actually, if you go back to 2000 -- and it's really starting to irritate me.
you folks seem to have more of a handle than most on managing tsp accounts, so if you don't mind i think i'll just, uh, hang with you guys for a while.
right now i'm 50% C, 25% S, 25% I.
should i be moving my money right now? balance has dropped by about $6,000 in the last week or two.
bob
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Thu Apr 21, 2005 4:38 pm |
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martyfoley
Senior Member
Cash: $ 66.02
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Joined: 18 Mar 2005
Location: Northeast USA
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| Greetings Bob! |
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Welcome to the club! Although the other members may disagree with my philosphy I am a fence sitter right now meaning I just switched to 100% to the G-fund today for tomorrow. I'm not enthused with the markets at this time but that could change later on. I hate being bearish as you can't make money this way in the TSP, I would rather wait here to let the market tell me what to do thru the indicators. At this point there appears to be more sellers than buyers, for the C and S funds. The I fund has been holding up better but I think it's best to wait to see what happens there too. I'm not saying you should switch everything to G as I don't know your risk tolerance but my gut says we're still going down. The rallies are being shorted, at this time and the spring/summer months usually are not that good for the markets. I'm sure there may be a few tradeable rallies during this time period but a quick exit will be needed. Good Luck, Marty. p.s. if you have any other friends ask them to join us!
Top Dog for March and May 06!
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Thu Apr 21, 2005 5:03 pm |
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rangerbob
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Location: arizona
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hi sarah and marty. i ignored my tsp all through the 90's, with everything in the c fund, and did just fine, thank you.
in the last year or so, especially since we've been given the ability to move money on a daily basis, i've been looking at my balance everyday and have been stunned by the daily swings...up 4K one day, down 6K the next week. holy cow! seemed there had to be a better way, then i stumbled onto this forum yesterday.
i've got about ten years till retirement.
i've been pretty steady and static with my allocations, but as i learn more and get advice from folks like yourselves, all that is going to change. what i've been doing does not seem to be working, and the markets/economy seem pretty darned unstable right now.
i've got a pretty high tolerance for risk, although i'm not suicidal or anything, if that's what you mean 
so...i'm looking to get a LOT more proactive. just don't know how to do it yet. i am the quintessential newbie when it comes to stocks and the tsp. for example -- sarah -- what is an equity? is that like the c and s funds?
so...should i buy, sell, punt, have a martini, or go climb a rock?
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Thu Apr 21, 2005 6:17 pm |
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Wheels
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Location: Nashua NH
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quote:
Originally posted by sarah
Now, now guys. It wasn't that bad. Asian markets ended down 1% and the European markets are up. Futures are up also.
The Nikkei 225 ended down 104.19 points, or 0.94%, at 10,984.39. The index was down more than 2% at midday. The broader Topix index was down 0.73% at 1,123.32.
Well, looks like I got out of the C just in time to miss a huge run-up (dripping with sarcasm in case you missed it).
The I fund meanwhile should be pretty flat (the EAFE is down .033% in U.S. dollars as I write this) but the EFA is up 1.75% so if I'm getting the hang of this the I fund will play a little catch-up tomorrow and hopefully mirror some of today's U.S. returns.
Dave
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Thu Apr 21, 2005 7:29 pm |
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martyfoley
Senior Member
Cash: $ 66.02
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Joined: 18 Mar 2005
Location: Northeast USA
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| TSP Allocations |
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Just a quick note; For tomorrow I will be 100% G. The F-fund looked like it was putting in a short term top to me today so I got out of it. Regarding the other funds C, S, and I. I'll be using 20 day exponential moving averages on stockcharts.com as trigger points should I decide to enter. The S fund chart and I fund charts look the strongest basing formations so far. Should these funds move above the 20 day ema's with vigor I may test the waters with pilot buys, but I still don't trust the markets for the longer term. These would be short term buys. Keep posted, Marty.
Top Dog for March and May 06!
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Thu Apr 21, 2005 10:48 pm |
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Jonathan
Member
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Joined: 22 Apr 2005
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| Hello, all |
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I guess I'll jump in here as well. I'm a Fed with the Department of Commerce, and have been for about a year and a half. I'm just getting serious with TSP investing (I have about 30 years until retirement, unless I continue to really enjoy what I do, in which case it might be longer).
I've been following this forum for several weeks now.
For the most part, I intend to leave my TSP primarily in equities at this point, mostly I-Fund, perhaps with minor tweaks from time to time. The major exception will be recessions, as predicted by inverted bond yield curves.
At any rate, that's my plan. And I've already deviated from it: Friday's losses convinced me to shift about half my TSP into the G-fund earlier this week. So while I did benefit some by today's runup, fortunately I avoided doing TOO well. Whew.
Anyway, hello to all.
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Fri Apr 22, 2005 1:16 am |
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SkyPilot
Senior Member
Cash: $ 100.11
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Joined: 13 Mar 2005
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Big day today! However, with recent pullbacks in the market, I am not that excited with todays movement. That could be because I am mostly in the G fund, and missed out  . I used to feel really bad missing these days, but I am learning that it is almost impossible to anticipate these events. So, the best plan for me is to continue to follow trends, as they seem to offer the best chance at making gains and minimizing losses. Sticking with my conservative posture for now. Also, I just reviewed my quarterly statement, and am down just under 1% for the year, which, when considering everything means I have recouped about 2.5% since about the 5th of January. I am going to try to discipline myself from "bargain shopping" as it seems to produce little overall positive results, and invites significant risk.
For those of you who cashed in today, Bravo!
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Fri Apr 22, 2005 3:17 am |
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Jonathan
Member
Cash: $ 4.05
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| charts |
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Is it considered bad form to post charts here? I have several from spreadsheets I've constructed from TSP data. If there's interest, I can post some this evening.
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Fri Apr 22, 2005 11:22 am |
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martyfoley
Senior Member
Cash: $ 66.02
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Joined: 18 Mar 2005
Location: Northeast USA
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| No Followthru! |
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Staying 100% G. As of yet I see no evidence of follwthru buying. All funds except the AGG (F-fund) are still below their respective 20 day exponential moving averages. The F-fund may be forming a short term top here so I got out yesterday. These are the major problems. 1) Unfavorable Seasonality, 2) No help from the NASDAQ, 3) S&P500 has completed a head & shoulders pattern and has broken support at 1164. We would need massive buying to move thru 1164 to the upside to get thru this resistance level as support becomes resistance once penetrated to the downside. 4) Crude oil is now forming a new short term uptrend, could $60 oil be right around the corner? 5) Serious loss of momentum is showing up in the 50 day and 200 day moving averages as the gap between the two has been closing. Earnings reports have been pretty good but that is all hindsight, the markets try to look out 6 months into the future so I think once the earnings reporting season is over, the lull will cause the markets to focus on future developments which could be a slowdown. I wish I could be more optimistic but the technical damage done to the equity markets are considerable and we really need some good news to get the long term investors to come back in. Marty.
Top Dog for March and May 06!
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Fri Apr 22, 2005 3:15 pm |
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SkyPilot
Senior Member
Cash: $ 100.11
Posts: 492
Joined: 13 Mar 2005
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Marty, I agree. I think yesterdays move up was a rubber dead cat bounce of a trampoline (with maybe a double helix rolling gainer thrown in). Until the medium term trend lines head up, there will volatile peaks and valleys, which I seem to always be one day behind when I try to play them. Aren't we at roughly the same levels now as mid-November 04? I think I will keep most of my marbles in the bag, so I can play later on.
As of appx: 10:45am CST
S&P 500 INDEX
(0.32%)
DOW JONES WILSHIRE 4500 COMPLET
(0.56%)
ISHARES MSCI EAFE FD
(0.12%)
ISHARES LEH AGG FD
(0.07%)
Not much of an indicator that the bears are back in the cave just yet...
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Fri Apr 22, 2005 3:55 pm |
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martyfoley
Senior Member
Cash: $ 66.02
Posts: 404
Joined: 18 Mar 2005
Location: Northeast USA
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| Sellers Still in Control! |
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Hi Sky, I hate being pessimistic! Folks who got caught in last weeks waterfall and are still fully invested! Luckily I was in the F and G at the time. This bottom still needs more time to form, if in fact it is a bottom. I have serious doubts as the overhead resistance is huge. We may be forming a bearish flag now in the S&P500, so I'm keeping a close eye on it. If crude does continue to move up here which I think it will, the flag will even have more bearish potential. This will also affect the I fund negatively too, so there's really no where to hide except the G fund or possibly the F-fund but only if it breaks out again to the upside. Right now I think there is a lot of nervousness, even if we do go up in the C,S, or I, I don't think it's gonna have legs, then the problem is trying to get out without losing your profit! Real tricky! Marty.
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Fri Apr 22, 2005 4:11 pm |
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