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Wheels
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Well not only did I pick the wrong day to jump back into stocks, but it appears I picked the wrong fund as well. The S fund held up pretty well today considering. At least my call on the dollar was right (for one day at least). I'm hoping the S&P will find support right about here. I'm nervous about it though. From a contrarian point of view I guess that nervousness is a good thing. We'll see.

Dave
Post Mon Mar 21, 2005 9:29 pm
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SkyPilot
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Cash: $ 100.11

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I would have hoped S would have seen some gains today, but as it ended up it was only a sting instead of a bite. Now, let's see the I fund begin to gain some traction.
Post Tue Mar 22, 2005 1:01 am
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martyfoley
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Conservative (nearing retirement) TSP Allocations  Reply with quote  

I increased C & S allocations slightly (see TSP Federal Allocations Forum) and continue to avoid the I fund for now. The main reason is the dollar looks like it wants to have a countertrend rally here mainly because it has the Fed on its side now with some higher interest rates in the offing. Dollar fundamentals are horrible so this rally probably won't go too far, then the I fund will be a buy when the dollar rally stalls. I'm still bullish on the S & C but higher energy costs and interest rates don't help the stock markets much as history shows. The oil bubble will eventually burst but the markets are now realizing that $35 oil (barrel) days are over with. Let's hope the C & S can hit new highs on the next rally to keep the bull alive. Good Luck!

Top Dog for March and May 06!
Post Tue Mar 22, 2005 1:50 pm
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martyfoley
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US Dollar  Reply with quote  

I don't know if anyone noticed but Newsweek ran an article titled, "The Incredible Shrinking Dollar" a while back. Ever since then the dollar refused to hit new lows and actually just created a higher low (bullish) on the US Dollar Index chart. Currently its up to 83.36 or so. It has crossed it's 50 day moving average at 83.15 and headed up to its 200 day moving average @ 85.70. It certainly looks like it just might reach 85.70 in the near future. If this infact is the beginning of a new $ bull market the fun may be over for the I fund. I'm sure there will be rallies in the I fund in the future but will they have any sustainable momentum? We'll have to wait to find out if there is a reaction at the 200 day moving average or if the dollar can get thru it without a problem to confirm a new bull market.

Top Dog for March and May 06!
Post Tue Mar 22, 2005 8:40 pm
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Wheels
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I said yesterday or the day before on this board that people were expecting more hawkish language from the Fed and that would be good for the dollar. What I should have been able to realize is that this hawkish language would also be bad for stocks. This is beginning to sting a little.

Dave
Post Tue Mar 22, 2005 9:02 pm
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SkyPilot
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and Owch!
Post Tue Mar 22, 2005 9:12 pm
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Wheels
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Jim Jubak has an article on the dollar on the CNBC homepage right now. He says he believes the dollar won't fall too much more from here. He acknowledges all of the problems for the dollar that you are pointing out here, but his point, in short, is that the yen and the euro have similar if not worse problems to deal with.

I don't have an opinion either way, I'm just watching it very carefully.

Dave


Last edited by Wheels on Tue Mar 22, 2005 11:38 pm; edited 1 time in total
Post Tue Mar 22, 2005 9:13 pm
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martyfoley
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US Dollar  Reply with quote  

For some reason whenever Newsweek runs an article about the markets they can usually mark a bottom or a top. That's mainly because they are looking in hindsight. The dollar has fallen for quite a while now and may be entitled to a counter trend rally which may catch a lot of people off guard. I agree as I mentioned before this country's fundamentals (twin deficits etc.) are horrible. The dollar should go down and continue to go down. But markets don't do what's obvious sometimes. I'm just suggesting at this point in time that we may be starting a countertrend rally here which may last longer than anyone expects simply because everyone has already placed there bets on the short side.

Top Dog for March and May 06!
Post Tue Mar 22, 2005 9:30 pm
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greg
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The S&P has just gone thru a classic "Head and Shoulders" pattern.
Post Wed Mar 23, 2005 5:47 am
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martyfoley
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Conservative (nearing retirement) TSP Allocations  Reply with quote  

Hi everyone;
Dollar continues to climb. Staying out of I Fund for now. I increased S-Fund from 14% to 15%, and C-Fund from 16% to 20% today. G-Fund at 65%. I am showing oversold conditions in the S and C funds so this is the time to start nibbling. Good Luck to all!

Top Dog for March and May 06!
Post Wed Mar 23, 2005 3:42 pm
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Wheels
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Well I capitulated this morning. Back to 100% G for a couple of days until I can better gauge what is going on. I don't disagree that the markets should find support right about here, but since I am already down well over 3% this year, and since I am hoping to retire in 7 years (under the ATC early retirement rules), and since I need to make about 11% a year to make a million by then (an arbitrary goal), I thought I need to be a little more confident that the markets are heading up before I jump back on board.

Dave
Post Wed Mar 23, 2005 7:53 pm
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Wheels
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The dollar has climbed very steadily this week and at this hour the dollar index is over 84. Resistance over the last few months has been around 85 and a half. If the dollar index approaches that resistance some time next week, I will likely move 100% into the I fund assuming our equity markets have stopped the bleeding.

Dave
Post Wed Mar 23, 2005 8:02 pm
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Wheels
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Let's go back and explore the part where you join me in the bunker.

Dave
Post Thu Mar 24, 2005 1:33 pm
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Rajun Cajun
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Sarah,
Would you suggest getting into the I fund today/next week? Which markets are open Friday?

RC
Post Thu Mar 24, 2005 4:36 pm
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Wheels
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I guess this is what you would call getting whipsawed. I have been seriously out of tune this year.

Dave
Post Thu Mar 24, 2005 6:42 pm
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