SkyPilot
Senior Member
Cash: $ 100.11
Posts: 492
Joined: 13 Mar 2005
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I'm taking my little gains off the table today, and will be in G until next week gets underway.
A bunker mentality is great when the bomb is coming down. INCOMING!
I wonder if the market is going to be crappy until fall again?
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Thu Mar 24, 2005 8:45 pm |
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LottomagicZ4941
Senior Member
Cash: $ 1.66
Posts: 2633
Joined: 02 Dec 2004
Location: Earth
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Nice to see the dollar showing sings of life just as Newsweek has front page story about the shrinking dollar. Have not read it yet.
Thinking about letting the mutual fund mannagers make some of my timeing moves for me.
Right now Washington Mutual which is a choice in my 457B which I moved out of to avoid bond exposure seems to have moved out of bonds substantially since I moved out of it.
Thinking of re-diversifying my 457b and let the managers do the moves back into bonds.
Also some great quotes in this thread!!!
"A bunker mentality is great when the bomb is coming down. INCOMING! "
Skypilot
President Eisenhower once said, "Things are more like they are now then they have ever been before." quoted by Sarah
The hard part about timing mutual funds is you are always looking in a rear view mirror.
Non promotional Facebook Jail regular forum inquiry
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Sat Mar 26, 2005 4:54 pm |
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SkyPilot
Senior Member
Cash: $ 100.11
Posts: 492
Joined: 13 Mar 2005
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Saraho, Just wanted to reiterate my appreciation for your insightful commentary on the market, specifically related to the relative strength or weakness of the USD.
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Tue Mar 29, 2005 1:33 pm |
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martyfoley
Senior Member
Cash: $ 66.02
Posts: 404
Joined: 18 Mar 2005
Location: Northeast USA
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| Conservative (nearing retirement) allocations posted. |
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For 3/29/05, increasing S to 18%, Increasing C to 24%. I fund will continue to underperform as US dollar continues to rally. The dollar is approaching it's 200 day moving average currently at 85.60 and should find some resistance there. If it blows past 85.60 then the I fund will continue to be weak. I'm expecting a pause/reaction (down phase) for the dollar at 85.60 or thereabouts which may be a good time to pick up some I shares. Good Luck!
Top Dog for March and May 06!
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Tue Mar 29, 2005 4:31 pm |
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Wheels
Preferred Member
Cash: $ 21.52
Posts: 106
Joined: 17 Mar 2005
Location: Nashua NH
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Everything I am reading says the dollar is going to rally a little more. I'm not so sure though. We are approaching 85 and a half on the dollar index which is resistance that has held for over 6 months. I will be watching very closely while I consider my next buying opportunity for stocks in general and particularly the I fund.
Dave
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Tue Mar 29, 2005 9:12 pm |
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BlankenshipFP
Money Talk Advisor
Cash: $ 79.56
Posts: 390
Joined: 05 Oct 2004
Location: Illinois
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quote:
Originally posted by SkyPilot
Saraho,
I certainly hope that's a typo... 
Jim Blankenship, CFP�, EA
Blankenship Financial Planning, Ltd.
www.BlankenshipFinancial.com
Standard IRS Circular 230 Notice Applies
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Tue Mar 29, 2005 11:03 pm |
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Rolo
Yo' Daddy
Cash: $ 309.70
Posts: 1551
Joined: 13 Mar 2005
Location: Colorado/Florida
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quote:
Originally posted by BlankenshipFP
quote:
Originally posted by SkyPilot
Saraho,
I certainly hope that's a typo...
BAHAHAHAHAHA! THAT is FUNNY.
Context: Sarah's handle on other boards is 'saraho'; she told several of us about money-talk.org.
"Expect me when you see me."
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Tue Mar 29, 2005 11:59 pm |
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martyfoley
Senior Member
Cash: $ 66.02
Posts: 404
Joined: 18 Mar 2005
Location: Northeast USA
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| Conservative (nearing retirement) TSP |
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Increased S-1% to 19%, Increased C-1% to 25%, Testing the I Fund with 18%, 38% in G. The US dollar bumped against it's major downtrend line day before yesterday. It is overbought short term now. The question is whether they will short it again driving the price back down. The next day or two will tell us. Also, if the dollar does go back down will it hold at previous lows or break them? All bet's are off though if the dollar moves up thru it's major downtrend line on it's weekly chart. Good Luck!
Top Dog for March and May 06!
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Wed Mar 30, 2005 4:56 pm |
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SkyPilot
Senior Member
Cash: $ 100.11
Posts: 492
Joined: 13 Mar 2005
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Going back to G for tomorrow, cuz I think the market will reverse today's gains. Capital conservation... If it does, I will return to my appx. 50/50 split of stox and bonds.
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Wed Mar 30, 2005 5:07 pm |
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dmanos
Member
Cash: $ 4.60
Posts: 23
Joined: 30 Mar 2005
Location: Texas
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Just wanted to say that I am glad I finally found somewhere that folks take as much active interest in their TSP as I do. Most of the guys I work with just let there money sit and don't do a thing with it.
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Wed Mar 30, 2005 7:05 pm |
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Wheels
Preferred Member
Cash: $ 21.52
Posts: 106
Joined: 17 Mar 2005
Location: Nashua NH
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Unlike the last two days, today's gains appear that they are going to hold. Does that mean that we hit support yesterday (1163) and now we are headed back up to 1250 or so? While the dollar didn't exactly hit resistance, it did get up to the upper end of it's recent trading range before falling slightly two days in a row. Does this mean that the dollar index is heading back down to 80-81? What a powerful combo that would be for the I fund. Might have to consider getting back in.
Dave
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Wed Mar 30, 2005 7:42 pm |
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martyfoley
Senior Member
Cash: $ 66.02
Posts: 404
Joined: 18 Mar 2005
Location: Northeast USA
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| On the Cusp |
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We are on thin ice here don't let anyone kid you. Major support for the S&P500 is 1160-1163, for the Dow if we go below 10365 its curtains. Sometimes the markets while testing support area's actually close below them for one day just to shake out all the longs and once the fear is so great and everyone sells it doesn't take much buying to start a nice rally. I don't know what will happen next, but I do know we are in an area in the S-Fund and C-Fund where a nice rally could begin soon providing oil behaves itself (starts going down) and the dollar starts going down to previous levels. The dollar because of this country's fundamentals should continue to go down (bullish for the I-fund) but if it doesn't and goes thru it's weekly downtrend line to the upside, I would have to say bye bye to the I fund for a while. Right now the dollar is overbought short term, I'm expecting some sort of fall, which would be bullish for the I-fund but we'll just have to see what kind of fall it is. Will it have downside momentum and break previoius supports or will it just go down a couple of days and start rallying again? It's anyones guess right now. Hope this helps a little. Good Luck, stay vigilant because this could get ugly fast if oil and/or the dollar continue up.
Top Dog for March and May 06!
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Wed Mar 30, 2005 8:33 pm |
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Wheels
Preferred Member
Cash: $ 21.52
Posts: 106
Joined: 17 Mar 2005
Location: Nashua NH
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Man, today would have been a nice day to be back in. Oh Well. Hopefully this will sell off just a bit tomorrow and I'll jump back in.
Dave
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Wed Mar 30, 2005 8:56 pm |
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Wheels
Preferred Member
Cash: $ 21.52
Posts: 106
Joined: 17 Mar 2005
Location: Nashua NH
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The Fed is talking about raising the fed funds rate to about 4 and a half. What was the fed funds rate during those years? I'll bet it was significantly higher.
Dave
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Wed Mar 30, 2005 9:32 pm |
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Wheels
Preferred Member
Cash: $ 21.52
Posts: 106
Joined: 17 Mar 2005
Location: Nashua NH
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The fed funds rate between 1979 and 1982 was between 11 and 16%.
Dave
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Wed Mar 30, 2005 10:47 pm |
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