GuantanaSWO
Contributing Member
Cash: $ 7.40
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Joined: 20 Sep 2005
Location: Coronado, CA
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Boy. All I can say is that people here seem to have a rather grim view of the health of the market. I wonder where that comes from?
I don't see the market roaring off in another bull session but I don't see it turning into Germany after WW I where people were buring Deutchmarks for fuel in their stoves. Look, IMHO the market is doing OK and the market is being efficient. I think we will see a downturn is US equities because (as I have mentioned before) I think one of the most important things is the opinion of the average US citizen and today we saw that consumer confidence fell. Why didn't the markets tumble on the news as well? Becuase I believe that it was already priced into the market.
I also believe that the bond market was, to a small degree, stabilized by the comments of Chairman Greenspan and that is why we didn't see a real move in the F fund.
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Wed Sep 28, 2005 3:15 am |
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show-me
Contributing Member
Cash: $ 7.00
Posts: 35
Joined: 22 Jun 2005
Location: Missouri
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quote:
Originally posted by GuantanaSWO
No, not really Showme. The world now operates on a fiat economy. Previosly, if the government just printed money to cover it's bills you would have been correct and still would be correct in todays terms. That currency was backed by the goverments holdings (usually gold) and was a one for one exchange. In a fiat economy the value of the money is based on faith in the government that they are able to back that currency. The difference is that the government is not just printing money to cover its bills and the selling of Treasury securities is not the same as printing money and thus has little effect on the economy and the value of the dollar. The value of the dollar is based on the demand for the dollar and the demand has been increasing lately (thus driving up the price and hence value).
Fiat money or fiat currency, is money such as paper money, that is current or legal tender as satisfaction for money debts by government fiat, that is by law not by convention (fiat is from the Latin "let it be").
I had to look it up. I don’t buy it and I don’t think others buy it. Faith in our government is wearing thin in our country and in others. I mean come on one failure after another from our current administration is not building faith. People are losing faith. Look at the consumer confidence numbers. No confidence, no faith.
Take a look what a google search of “fiat economy” got me. This is what other countries think of our fiat economy.
http://tinyurl.com/cz2dd
http://tinyurl.com/a2bq5
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Wed Sep 28, 2005 3:37 am |
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drinkoj
Preferred Member
Cash: $ 21.35
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Joined: 27 Jul 2005
Location: SC
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Too much rational thinking about the market, so I'll discuss my own magic tea leaves reading called, The Dave Factor, as I have mentioned in the past.
The buddy of mine named Dave sold is his I Fund shares around 30% of his funds on 9/12/05 and made a very nice trade (I on 9/12 was $16.71), but didn't tell me about this until the end of the week, 9/16.
The Dave Factor teaches me that when my buddy Dave buys a Fund it means it's a major sell signal, and when Dave sells a Fund it means it's a major buy signal. This has been a pattern that I've actually followed and posted on the boards from time to time, and generally turns out to be right.
If on the 9/12 sell example, if I had known of this The Dave Factor situation of him selling the I Fund, I would have bought into the I Fund effective 9/13 and bought at $16.60, one of the lowest prices in the past two weeks for those that do a lot of trading. But instead, I was watching the C Fund and didn't know about the 9/12 trade, so I bought into the C Fund at $13.06 for 30% of my TSP (grand total 50%) and the I Fund at $16.72 for 20% of my TSP (grand total 30%) on 9/21 .
Now many of you are thinking, "WHERE ARE YOU GOING WITH THIS CRAZY STORY! And are you mixing major booze with that OJ?" So here's the tid bit of the day, The Dave Factor just happened, my buddy Dave is buying back into the I Fund at the close of business today. So everyone my recommendation of the day is to sell that I Fund for a profit today, because within 2 days if The Dave Factor follows its usual trend, the I Fund will be at a new low.
That is all, enjoy. 
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Wed Sep 28, 2005 11:27 am |
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SkyPilot
Senior Member
Cash: $ 100.11
Posts: 492
Joined: 13 Mar 2005
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| Omens and Signs |
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All I know is that here in Minnesota, "The geese are flying south" . pass it on....
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Wed Sep 28, 2005 2:35 pm |
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martyfoley
Senior Member
Cash: $ 66.02
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Joined: 18 Mar 2005
Location: Northeast USA
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Why is the dollar rising when it should be tanking? Has to be higher interest rates of return compared to other currencies like I mentioned before. Marty.
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Wed Sep 28, 2005 2:52 pm |
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drinkoj
Preferred Member
Cash: $ 21.35
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Joined: 27 Jul 2005
Location: SC
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Just was looking at the forgien markets and see that the Nikkei 225 and Hang Seng were up 1.35% and 1.38% respectfully, along with the other Asian markets closing up too, with the Dollar down vs the Yen. But the European markets are seem to be slightly lower over all, and the US dollar is up vs. the Euro.
How much weight does the I Fund have in Asian markets vs the European markets, basically which is has the greater factor on the I Fund's performance if currency is equal in trade relation to the dollar?
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Thu Sep 29, 2005 10:17 am |
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SkyPilot
Senior Member
Cash: $ 100.11
Posts: 492
Joined: 13 Mar 2005
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| Bandwagon |
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76 Trombones in the big parade...... 
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Thu Sep 29, 2005 9:50 pm |
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Rolo
Yo' Daddy
Cash: $ 309.70
Posts: 1551
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Location: Colorado/Florida
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I got a trouserbone! Let's play! 
How are the % of each country in the EAFE determined? Market cap?
"Expect me when you see me."
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Thu Sep 29, 2005 11:43 pm |
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SkyPilot
Senior Member
Cash: $ 100.11
Posts: 492
Joined: 13 Mar 2005
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Put your flugelhorne away!
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Thu Sep 29, 2005 11:51 pm |
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Rolo
Yo' Daddy
Cash: $ 309.70
Posts: 1551
Joined: 13 Mar 2005
Location: Colorado/Florida
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quote:
Originally posted by SkyPilot
Put your flugelhorne away!
I wasn't talking to you!
Now Sarah, what's a 'Cubes'? Another brand name of ETF, like SPiDR and VIPER and such?
"Expect me when you see me."
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Fri Sep 30, 2005 3:41 am |
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trisha
Preferred Member
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Location: NW Ark
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...made a change this morning. ...hopefully I can keep the gains I've made.
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Fri Sep 30, 2005 3:37 pm |
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SkyPilot
Senior Member
Cash: $ 100.11
Posts: 492
Joined: 13 Mar 2005
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| F-Fund |
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The move to F-fund is contrary to my general sensibilities. I have great antipathy for the F-fund, and know it is only of real value on rare occassions. I hope this is just such a time.
However, my trend indicators signal a move to 100% F.
Left to my own devices, I would keep some in the I-fund, as a peripheral indicator gives it another recent buy signal.
However, my own devices have proven to be faulty at best. This will be a strong test of these indicators. They are technical, and not event or sentiment based i.e. Hindenberg Omen, or even Star Wars 3, Revenge of the Sith (?)
Beyond that, tea leaves, chicken parts and flying geese (or monkeys) are my other options!
I wish I had deeper insight to offer. I do feel some comefort knowing that Trish and I are of a similar mind.
Have a great weekend!
Last edited by SkyPilot on Sun Oct 02, 2005 1:21 pm; edited 2 times in total |
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Fri Sep 30, 2005 3:54 pm |
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trisha
Preferred Member
Cash: $ 33.75
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Joined: 21 Mar 2005
Location: NW Ark
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| Re: F Fund |
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quote:
Originally posted by sarah
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The dreaded Hindenberg Omen? *LOL*
No, not The Hindenberg, it was reported negative yesterday, so suppose it still is. ...and since I don't understand all that math that goes into figuring it out i'm not sure there is sucha thing.
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Fri Sep 30, 2005 3:55 pm |
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drinkoj
Preferred Member
Cash: $ 21.35
Posts: 106
Joined: 27 Jul 2005
Location: SC
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| Re: F Fund |
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quote:
Originally posted by trisha
quote:
Originally posted by sarah
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The dreaded Hindenberg Omen? *LOL*
No, not The Hindenberg, it was reported negative yesterday, so suppose it still is. ...and since I don't understand all that math that goes into figuring it out i'm not sure there is sucha thing.
So no one uses the time tested and good old The Dave Factor to determine when to buy and sell but me? And btw, the guy made money this time, rarity, but then again even a blind squirel gets a nut every once and a while. Peace.
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Fri Sep 30, 2005 9:16 pm |
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Rolo
Yo' Daddy
Cash: $ 309.70
Posts: 1551
Joined: 13 Mar 2005
Location: Colorado/Florida
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| Re: F-Fund |
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quote:
Originally posted by SkyPilot
The move to F-fund is contrary to my general sensibilies. I have great antipathy for the F-fund, and know it is only of real value on rare occassions. I hope this is just such a time.
Y'know...I just did that same thing and it was STOOPID! You should read my account talk...save ya the trouble of smackin' yourself later.
"Expect me when you see me."
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Fri Sep 30, 2005 11:59 pm |
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