I've had some involvement in making recommendations within the TSP, so I'm familiar with the funds. The fund you're fully invested in at this point is the international fund.
While it makes good sense to have some exposure in international markets, I think a 100% allocation there is too much. I generally recommend no more than 10% to 15% of the stock portfolio in international funds, with the remainder allocated among small cap and large cap funds (S and C funds). I realize that the I fund has performed the best of all of the funds recently, but proper diversification can help you to weather storms when one particular fund is underperforming.
How old are you? When are you thinking about retirement, and will you be using these funds at that time?
Jim Blankenship, CFP®, EA
Blankenship Financial Planning, Ltd.
www.BlankenshipFinancial.com
Standard IRS Circular 230 Notice Applies
Fri Mar 11, 2005 1:28 pm
BlankenshipFP Money Talk Advisor
Cash: $ 79.56
Posts: 390
Joined: 05 Oct 2004
Location: Illinois
The maxim that is sometimes overlooked in this business is: "You should do what works best for you".
I understand your perspective with regard to the diversification issue. Most folks aren't in a position or they don't have the impetus to follow their funds as closely as you indicate you are - and as a result, diversification is their best friend. In your case, though, it sounds like you have the matter well in hand. That is, for your particular situation, your time horizon, and your careful monitoring of the account.
One thing that I might mention is that the information you've posted (the returns for the funds) is all trailing information, and as you know "past performance is no guarantee of future results". But I'm sure you understand that concept and have already considered that in your decision-making process.
So, I guess in answer to your original post - if you aren't interested in a diversified allocation then the non-diversified allocation you've chosen is the one for you.
Good luck -
Jim Blankenship, CFP®, EA
Blankenship Financial Planning, Ltd.
www.BlankenshipFinancial.com
Standard IRS Circular 230 Notice Applies
Fri Mar 11, 2005 3:09 pm
domskynetlabs Full Member
Cash: $ 21.09
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Joined: 24 Nov 2004
Re: Govt TSP Allocations
I am also contributing I have 50% in I and S funds. They have been the 2 most successfull. Are you a civilian or military employee?
Fri Mar 11, 2005 6:06 pm
David Briggs Senior Member
Cash: $ 57.86
Posts: 289
Joined: 16 Jan 2005
Sarah~~ The continued uptrend of the I shares is a bet on oil and pharmaceuticals (and the weakness of the dollar). The fund has a big stake in BP (British Petroleum), Total S.A., HSBC Holdings, and Royal Dutch Petroleum. I noted with irony your regret at having missed the latest bull market in oil, when in fact it has accounted for much of your great success in the I shares!
Drug makers GlaxoSmithKline and Novartis continue to demonstrate strenth, while their U.S. counterparts have been punished by unfavorable news about some major product lines.
Vodfone has flattened.
Royal Bank of Scotland has taken a significant hit in the last few days.
Toyota and Nestle have not contributed at all to the run-up, sticking mainly to a trading range.
So watch the performance of the big holdings and you will know when the time has come to make your swap. But swap to what? Look forward to that discussion!
~~David
Sun Mar 13, 2005 1:58 am
SkyPilot Senior Member
Cash: $ 100.11
Posts: 492
Joined: 13 Mar 2005
Allocations
Saraho, M_M, New Forum, let's party... Staying 50% G and spread even across the rest for now. Things are choppy, so I am sitting with a bunch on the sidelines for now, and waiting for indicators to turn more positive. Good to see you again Saraho.
Sun Mar 13, 2005 1:47 pm
Rolo Yo' Daddy
Cash: $ 309.70
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Location: Colorado/Florida
haha, when did you go 100% I, Sarah? Now I'm behind you.
Hey mlk! Can I get on your e-list and off of your other list?
Jim: whooohohooooo...the "D" word hehe
Sun Mar 13, 2005 10:44 pm
Rolo Yo' Daddy
Cash: $ 309.70
Posts: 1551
Joined: 13 Mar 2005
Location: Colorado/Florida
I didn't want to assume you were holding a grudge...I'll take that as confirmation on high volume...heh heh.
Mon Mar 14, 2005 2:27 am
Rolo Yo' Daddy
Cash: $ 309.70
Posts: 1551
Joined: 13 Mar 2005
Location: Colorado/Florida
I have Borderline Personality Disorder, not Bipolar disorder, big difference.
I think PM would be more appropriate for this.
I wasn't interested in your system (good job, BTW, it appears to be making great returns if what I hear is true), I was only interested in eliminating the bad blood, for it's not necessary.
Mon Mar 14, 2005 3:21 am
LottomagicZ4941 Senior Member
Cash: $ 1.66
Posts: 2633
Joined: 02 Dec 2004
Location: Earth
So SkyPilot did you pick your name because of the video game?
I think it was by a company with a C in it?
Well if you did not pick your name for that reason you probably don't know the name of the company.
And Rolo I dated e-dated a counselor once who thought I might have boarderline personality disorder. But I think she just wanted an excuse to end things 'cuz she found a more local guy.
As for the US Dollar it will eventually rebound unless Bush keeps running us into debt. In the 80s everyone thought Japan was going to take over the world and that did not happen. Right now I'm the max over seas that I will likely ever go. 48 to 52% over seas. Use to have a market time system based on election year cycles. But then decided against ever having more then 50% overseas.
The model was simple US election year 100% us then 25/50/75 and cycle it that way.
[quote="LottomagicZ4941"]So SkyPilot did you pick your name because of the video game?
I think it was by a company with a C in it?
Well if you did not pick your name for that reason you probably don't know the name of the company.
SkyPilot is a nick name for institutional clergy. The game you might be referring to is "Sky Pilot, Baker Novelty, 1941." You can see a picture of the game at the following url. http://marvin3m.com/arcade/
Was there also a video game? I do enjoy a Dreamcast game called Pilot Wings...
I fund. I am almost persuaded to split 50 % G and I. The long term look for the USD is down, at least until next year, but I am hesitant after the first of the year. Gut check time...
Mon Mar 14, 2005 2:09 pm
SkyPilot Senior Member
Cash: $ 100.11
Posts: 492
Joined: 13 Mar 2005
Decided to jump in, as the I fund should have some room to bounce back tomorrow, and maybe get the penny in G tonight. If the I makes some gains in the AM, will consider it a snatch and grab, and run for cover taking my earnings with me.
Tomorrow 100% I-fund.
Mon Mar 14, 2005 5:03 pm
SkyPilot Senior Member
Cash: $ 100.11
Posts: 492
Joined: 13 Mar 2005
quote:Originally posted by BlankenshipFP
While it makes good sense to have some exposure in international markets, I think a 100% allocation there is too much. I generally recommend no more than 10% to 15% of the stock portfolio in international funds, with the remainder allocated among small cap and large cap funds (S and C funds). I realize that the I fund has performed the best of all of the funds recently, but proper diversification can help you to weather storms when one particular fund is underperforming.
This crowd looks at short term trends, even daily sometimes, so although the allocations may look extreme, many of us make moves weekly, if not daily. So, while a more conservative allocation makes sense for a buy and hold strategy, we have done very well studying the funds and market conditions, and making allocations based on trends and sentiment and news. While this may be a white knuckle approach to some, it is valid for many. Case in point, buy and hold devistated the TSP participant 2000-2003. Watching the market with understanding would have preserved a great deal of capital.
Mon Mar 14, 2005 9:03 pm
BlankenshipFP Money Talk Advisor
Cash: $ 79.56
Posts: 390
Joined: 05 Oct 2004
Location: Illinois
Honestly, it's refreshing to see folks taking such an active interest in their retirement accounts. From what I'm reading, it looks like you're all doing pretty well at it.
Most folks just don't want to spend the time and effort to follow things as closely as you do, and so a longer-term approach is most appropriate. But that doesn't mean to hold tight when a sea change is occurring as it did in 2000. Long-term investing doesn't always mean buy and hold forever.
I hope it works out well for you - and I'll continue to follow your posts with interest.
Welcome to the forum, btw!
Jim Blankenship, CFP®, EA
Blankenship Financial Planning, Ltd.
www.BlankenshipFinancial.com
Standard IRS Circular 230 Notice Applies
Mon Mar 14, 2005 11:36 pm
SkyPilot Senior Member
Cash: $ 100.11
Posts: 492
Joined: 13 Mar 2005
I Fund
Doesn't look like the I will pop up today, so will stay 100% I for tomorrow. Hope to see it go back up then will probably diversify again and wait for the next drop.
Have a good afternoon$$$
Tue Mar 15, 2005 4:35 pm
SkyPilot Senior Member
Cash: $ 100.11
Posts: 492
Joined: 13 Mar 2005
I fund
I'm glad I stayed in, as we should make up ground the next couple of days, and might see a strong gain towards the end of the week.
hehe
