vethost.com
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| Timing Does Not Work |
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Studies have consistently shown that timing does not work to increase profits, but tends to reduce them. Amen.
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Tue Feb 28, 2006 5:07 pm |
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Jaszbo
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I agree 100% with vetcom "Studies have consistently shown that timing does not work to increase profits, but tends to reduce them. Amen. "
I wish 90% of you were in the L fund instead of chasing performance. If anything when you are younger when the a broad based market index is doing bad, your biweekly dollar cost avergaing is helping you buy it at a cheaper rate, so when it returns to the same share price you are at a better.
The own advisor from this form has made it beyond clear, but some people don't want to listen.
I think some people who read this a few times
http://www.money-talk.org/viewtopic.php?t=6046&highlight=
http://www.emarotta.com/article.php?ID=158
I think my post is a useless, because some people will for ever chase performance and their allocation daily, weekly or monthly regardless of what is presented to them. There will always be an argument.
Here's another link I've posted before.
http://www.ifa.com/12steps/step4/
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Thu Mar 02, 2006 1:42 am |
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greg
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as of 02/28/06 (yesterday) cob:
i'm 60% g 40% i
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Thu Mar 02, 2006 2:25 am |
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Toto
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| Re: Timing Does Not Work |
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quote:
Originally posted by vethost.com
Studies have consistently shown that timing does not work to increase profits, but tends to reduce them. Amen.
Studies have consistently shown that these type of alienating statements are made by the socially challenged. Awomen.
My name is Toto and I am a stockoholic! 
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Thu Mar 02, 2006 7:44 am |
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Jaszbo
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"Isn't that timing? Should we tell them that they are simply wasting their time?" Yes
I saw on the television a bunch of so called experts, one saying invest in the stock market and another one arguing that this year real estate is going to be as hot as last year. Well if anybody has been reading reports, we can see the real estate guru was wrong.
You can time the market, but you can't do it consistently.
Isn't the definition of a speculator different than an investor?
If anybody has data on a so called "market timer" who's been able to time the market consistently for 10 years, I would love to see it, becuase I know it doesn't exist, but would love to be proved wrong.
The author Bein Stein who wrote a book called yes, you can time the market doesn't count. That strategy is not considered timing the market in my opinion.
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Fri Mar 03, 2006 4:45 am |
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Toto
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| Timing |
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The studies I've seen quoted on day trading show that either one out of ten or one out of twenty traders make it. Also, comments such as the best brokers are or should be sociopaths, because they don't get emotionally involved.
Let's face it folks, day trading attracts gamblers. Anyone disagree with this? Gamblers are known to try and reduplicate the high they get from winning. So the studies will be skewed.
That being said, if you don't have it in the L fund, or another blanced allocation, you are timing.
So then, Vethost, why do you have a blind eye toward YOUR TIMING, but see it in others? Be honest with yourself Vet, you are timing when you have it all in the I fund.
Youccan get as haughty and uppity as you want, the only difference between yourself and others is degree. Period.
That being said, I have it all in the I fund. But I also recognize that what I am doing is a form of timing, differing from what Sky is doing only by degree.
'Nuff said.
My name is Toto and I am a stockoholic!
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Fri Mar 03, 2006 5:39 pm |
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martyfoley
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| Investing IS timing! |
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ALL investors are timers whether they know it or not. They are (or hope to) catch the period of greatest growth in a stock or commodity. There is no escaping the fact that investors hope to make money that way otherwise there is no point to investing! The only problem is there are good timers or bad timers. If you are a bad (investor) timer chances are you will say timing the market can't be done. If you are a good timer (investor) chances are you will say timing is possible but not easy and requires a lot of homework. There are different degrees of investing (timing) from day trading to the Warren Buffet style which may take years but you are still timing and hoping to profit from the stock or commodities greatest period of growth. Marty.
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Fri Mar 03, 2006 5:58 pm |
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SkyPilot
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| Re: Timing |
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quote:
Originally posted by Toto
That being said, I have it all in the I fund. But I also recognize that what I am doing is a form of timing, differing from what Sky is doing only by degree.
'Nuff said.
I get pretty good results pouring my potion on a Magic 8 ball.
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Fri Mar 03, 2006 6:23 pm |
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SkyPilot
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| Re: Timing Does Not Work |
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quote:
Originally posted by Toto
quote:
Originally posted by vethost.com
Studies have consistently shown that timing does not work to increase profits, but tends to reduce them. Amen.
Studies have consistently shown that these type of alienating statements are made by the socially challenged. Awomen.
BooYah!  Benedictus
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Fri Mar 03, 2006 8:58 pm |
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Jaszbo
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Toto
"That being said, if you don't have it in the L fund, or another blanced allocation, you are timing."
I'm not in the L fund, because I don't like their allocation and I'm far from trying to time the market. Most people don't even know the top producers in the S&P500 are, yet they are good timers. Why not just go to some of the market timers webpage like http://www.tsptalk.com/ and follow their great great timing.
martyfoley
"ALL investors are timers whether they know it or not. They are (or hope to) catch the period of greatest growth in a stock or commodity." Not me
You shouldn't bring up Warren Buffet when talking about timing the market. Warren Buffet would never try to time the market as far as what people are doing here. People are trying to time a group of funds. Warren Buffet is one of a kind and if you think he times the market then I can see our point, but timing index funds isn't the same. I do believe you can time to an extent individual stocks, but to time a basket of say 7,000 stocks like some funds have, just doesn't work in the long run like people think it does.
When the market is doign bad, do you move out or buy cheap? A friend of mine who's a market timer still hasn't recup from the last bear market.
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Sat Mar 04, 2006 1:44 am |
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SkyPilot
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Jazbo,
You lost me....
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Sat Mar 04, 2006 2:38 am |
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Rolo
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quote:
Originally posted by Jaszbo
I agree 100% with vetcom "Studies have consistently shown that timing does not work to increase profits, but tends to reduce them. Amen. "
Yes, that is true ~2/3 of the time. That leaves 1/3 of us kicking ass.
quote:
Originally posted by Jaszbo
I wish 90% of you were in the L fund instead of chasing performance.
So you agree that at least 10% of us can profit from actively managing our accounts.
As for the other 90%, well, you got a little stereotyping going on there...not all of us are 'chasing performance' but are using other methods.
quote:
Originally posted by Jaszbo
There will always be an argument.
Yup. My argument: I have always beaten the market.
By much.
Others have the same argument.
Still others do not, and I would agree with you. They need to either change strategies and adapt or just go Bogle on their portfolios.
"Expect me when you see me."
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Sat Mar 04, 2006 2:54 pm |
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Rolo
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quote:
Originally posted by Toto
Also, comments such as the best brokers are or should be sociopaths, because they don't get emotionally involved.
eheh heh *ahem*
Indeed.
quote:
Originally posted by Jaszbo
"That being said, if you don't have it in the L fund, or another blanced allocation, you are timing."
Even if this were technically correct, you've broadened the definition so much that its lost all meaning. Unless you are using a completely mechanical asset-class allocation based on your time-horizon and only make trades to that end, you are guilty of 'timing'.
Fine...but if you lump moderate active-traders with day-traders with anyone not using said mechanical system, then no-one will listen since no one statement applies to all; you made yourself a mere clanging cymbal.
quote:
Originally posted by Jaszbo
Why not just go to some of the market timers webpage like http://www.tsptalk.com/ and follow their great great timing.
Guilt by association: You cannot condemn 'timing' based on the inept. We both agree that most who attempt it fail at it; that does not mean it cannot be done.
quote:
Originally posted by Jaszbo
You shouldn't bring up Warren Buffet when talking about timing the market. Warren Buffet would never try to time the market as far as what people are doing here.
According to your definition, the Oracle of Omaha is a market timer. A quote of his, "A boat rises and falls with the tide." Meaning: when the markets are poor, don't be quick to try to go against it, your winning stock, although strong, has to fight the market in which it belongs. 3/4 of all stocks follow their sector's trend.
quote:
Originally posted by Jaszbo
...but timing index funds isn't the same. I do believe you can time to an extent individual stocks, but to time a basket of say 7,000 stocks like some funds have, just doesn't work in the long run like people think it does.
I think no one singular system will work in all market conditions; you have to adapt the system to the climate, and that is where people fail in the long run...and that goes straight to those emotions.
"Expect me when you see me."
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Sat Mar 04, 2006 3:16 pm |
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SkyPilot
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Jazbo, what would define “success” for you?
Many of us seem to beat the "equal allocation" strategy.
Some use the S&P 500 as the standard. If so, then I think you will see that many beat it as well.
The ability of the active participants vs L-funds won't really be tested until we have a down market where the L funds will fail as a matter of design.
Buy and hold strategy only works if you can retire during an up cycle. Those who needed to tap their accounts in 2000-2003 and had to buy and hold as a matter of default would disagree with how successful buy and hold is.
True, if you buy and hold long enough you will likely beat a "timer" during a specific period, but you also will have to "time" your exit, thus, making you a "timer" in the broadest sense, which I believe, fit's your expansive definition.
I am also interested in your "passion" regarding this issue. You seem to be invested in a your strategy in a much deeper way than most, and are very evangelistic. I appreciate the energy, but you may need some distance to maintain perspective.
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Sat Mar 04, 2006 3:49 pm |
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Rolo
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quote:
Originally posted by SkyPilot
... down market where the L funds will fail as a matter of design.
I don't agree; what do you define as failure?
Buy-and-hold/diversification/efficient frontier over the course of one's accumulation stage cannot fail; it does not fail; it works every time in all market conditions.
quote:
Originally posted by SkyPilot
Buy and hold strategy only works if you can retire during an up cycle. Those who needed to tap their accounts in 2000-2003 and had to buy and hold as a matter of default would disagree with how successful buy and hold is.
Not true. Anyone that close to retirement will have very little in the market and would have lost very little. In fact, if done properly, they still would have earned (just not much) or stayed flat. Capital preservation is the game when very near retirement.
Contrarily, that is a perfect example of why timers/technical traders destroy buy-and-holders; however, traders need to maintain that kind of track record throughout whereas buy-and-holders only need to stay the course and not worry about such things.
"Expect me when you see me."
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Sat Mar 04, 2006 4:39 pm |
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