| Prices of real estate are overblown |
|
|
|
|
|
tss4
Contributing Member
Cash: $ 8.45
Posts: 42
Joined: 31 Jul 2005
|
quote:
Originally posted by vectorz
quote:
Originally posted by diego
From my perspective, that scenario is fairly realistic. 600K is about right for a "starter" single family home in SoCal, and I don't know anyone on a 15yr... nevertheless, the point is well made- a 1.5% increase led to a 23% increase in montly payment. Yikes!
600k in socal? Perhaps in Rialto or Compton, but that's waaay low anywhere else.
lol. he said starter. A quick look at remax shows he's right.
|
Mon Oct 03, 2005 7:35 pm |
|
|
diego
Member
Cash: $ 2.70
Posts: 13
Joined: 14 Sep 2005
|
|
 |
|
[quote="tss4"] quote:
Originally posted by vectorz
quote:
Originally posted by tss4
And that was with a pretty extreme case where 600k was financed.
600k is extreme? You can't buy an outhouse for 600k anywhere in the hot markets such as California, New York. It's actually way under average.
600K is a very realistic figure to finance where I'm going in SoCal- plenty of options in the 650 purchase range. Nevertheless, it would be a huge financial stretch, and I think it would put me (and others in my position) "at risk".
When I was a kid (grew up in San Diego), living "inland" (defined as East of the I-5) was soooo uncoool... haha funny how things change! 
For those of you who are willing to speculate a bit, let me play devil's advocate and ask something: assuming that the "bubble bursts" in the "overinflated" markets, do you see the "non-inflated" markets (like Western PA, Ohio, Detroit, etc) going UP due to higher demand for cheaper housing or DOWN with the trend? Just soliciting opinions, I'm sure they will vary.
|
|
Tue Oct 04, 2005 12:46 am |
|
|
vectorz
Contributing Member
Cash: $ 7.30
Posts: 36
Joined: 24 Aug 2005
|
quote:
Originally posted by tss4
Besides I live in one of the two markets you mentioned and 600k is actually higher than most people finance (the financed amount and the purchase amount are different).
No way, I don't believe that one bit. I know quite a lot of mortgage brokes as well as relatives that own mortgage brokerages, and the majority of the buyers right now are in way over their head w/ 100% financing.
|
|
Tue Oct 04, 2005 2:27 am |
|
|
tss4
Contributing Member
Cash: $ 8.45
Posts: 42
Joined: 31 Jul 2005
|
quote:
Originally posted by vectorz
quote:
Originally posted by tss4
Besides I live in one of the two markets you mentioned and 600k is actually higher than most people finance (the financed amount and the purchase amount are different).
No way, I don't believe that one bit. I know quite a lot of mortgage brokes as well as relatives that own mortgage brokerages, and the majority of the buyers right now are in way over their head w/ 100% financing.
Well, you're wrong. Just look up average home prices in those two areas. Apparently, most of these people you are refering to are trying to buy too much home. That's a completely different issue.
|
|
Tue Oct 04, 2005 12:22 pm |
|
|
vectorz
Contributing Member
Cash: $ 7.30
Posts: 36
Joined: 24 Aug 2005
|
quote:
Originally posted by tss4
Well, you're wrong. Just look up average home prices in those two areas. Apparently, most of these people you are refering to are trying to buy too much home. That's a completely different issue.
Not sure how looking up average home prices are going to tell me "how much mortgage is being pulled out on each one".
Yes, that *is* what i'm saying.. these people ARE trying to buy too much home.. duh? You mean you didn't realize that's what's happening? You actually thought all these people buying homes can AFFORD it? Ha, there's no point in arguing this any further. Obviously you're clueless.
|
|
Tue Oct 04, 2005 7:37 pm |
|
|
diego
Member
Cash: $ 2.70
Posts: 13
Joined: 14 Sep 2005
|
|
|
|
Most of the people that I know are admittedly overextended on their homes. This is an accepted fact of life in Southern California for most people. I'll back this with stats for anyone who doubts me (http://money.cnn.com/best/bplive/snapshots/40925.html): Median household income in San Diego is 51.7K, median home price is 480K. I think those numbers are a bit too low- more like 60 and 600. As you can see, median home prices are about 10 times the median yearly household income. Let's compare to Pittsburgh PA: median income 40.8K, median home price 157K.
My homeowner friends is SoCal believe that although the "market may crash" in less desirable areas, there will always be a surplus of buyers in the hot markets. As someone else pointed out, this pretty much defines a "bubble" economy.
I don't think those gains are sustainable (prices, maybe, but not the yearly gains). On the other hand, I've been away for 8 years and I've been proven wrong for 8 years! Every time I think the market is saturated, average home prices keep increasing. A quick glance at nearby LA demonstrates that prices can still go up! San Fran prices are even higher, and have been for years. Altough I see this viewpoint, there's no way I'm comfortable playing that game with the ante set so high.
Arguing about the market going up/down is probably not productive, but it is definitely helpful to read input about WHY people believe what they do. The current trend is pretty flat out there. I doubt it will "tank", but a rate increase of 1-2% could force a large volume of turnovers and drive prices down. How far down is anyone's guess.
|
|
Tue Oct 04, 2005 10:30 pm |
|
|
tss4
Contributing Member
Cash: $ 8.45
Posts: 42
Joined: 31 Jul 2005
|
|
|
|
quote:
Originally posted by vectorz
quote:
Originally posted by tss4
Well, you're wrong. Just look up average home prices in those two areas. Apparently, most of these people you are refering to are trying to buy too much home. That's a completely different issue.
Not sure how looking up average home prices are going to tell me "how much mortgage is being pulled out on each one".
Yes, that *is* what i'm saying.. these people ARE trying to buy too much home.. duh? You mean you didn't realize that's what's happening? You actually thought all these people buying homes can AFFORD it? Ha, there's no point in arguing this any further. Obviously you're clueless.
If the average price of homes being sold in SoCal is less then 600k (which any property lister would show you) then it doesn't take an einstein to realize that they're borrowing LESS then 600k for their mortgage, on average. This isn't that difficult. At this point, I believe you're just being obstinate.
And try to refrain from being a complete ass in your posts.
|
|
Wed Oct 05, 2005 1:56 am |
|
|
vectorz
Contributing Member
Cash: $ 7.30
Posts: 36
Joined: 24 Aug 2005
|
|
|
|
quote:
Originally posted by tss4
If the average price of homes being sold in SoCal is less then 600k (which any property lister would show you) then it doesn't take an einstein to realize that they're borrowing LESS then 600k for their mortgage, on average. This isn't that difficult. At this point, I believe you're just being obstinate.
And try to refrain from being a complete ass in your posts.
Uhm, once again, you've done nothing but make an ass of *yourself*. You're going to have to point out to me where I had said they're borrowing SPECIFICALLY $600k.
I said 600k for a home in livable Socal areas such as south bay, west la, san diego, san francisco (not the shitholes you're pointing out such as inland empire and the valley).
ANd in regards to your math computations; of course if they buy a 480k house, how can they borrow 600k. Re-read the thread, and then you'll find out that I said that a lot of home borrowers if not most are borrowing 100% of their mortgage.
100% of 480k is 480k.. NOT 600k, mr math genius.
Ok, that's it. You need to finish your replies over at the special olympics. This discussion is over.
|
|
Wed Oct 05, 2005 5:08 am |
|
|
tss4
Contributing Member
Cash: $ 8.45
Posts: 42
Joined: 31 Jul 2005
|
|
|
|
quote:
Originally posted by vectorz
Uhm, once again, you've done nothing but make an ass of *yourself*.
I do tend to respond angrily to those that get personal and insulting over a discussion.
You're going to have to point out to me where I had said they're borrowing SPECIFICALLY $600k.
Ok, here you go:
You can't buy an outhouse for 600k anywhere in the hot markets such as California, New York. It's actually way under average.
I said 600k was reasonable and you said it wasn't. 600k is more than the average home price as I pointed out. And you kept insisting it wasn't. Unless you'd like to change your position now that you've been presented with the facts.
I said 600k for a home in livable Socal areas such as south bay, west la, san diego, san francisco (not the shitholes you're pointing out such as inland empire and the valley).
You want a house better than the average person has in SoCal. And I wasn't refering to the shitholes. You obviosuly haven't looked up prices on any real estate web site. And you won't because it proves your case wrong.
ANd in regards to your math computations; of course if they buy a 480k house, how can they borrow 600k. Re-read the thread, and then you'll find out that I said that a lot of home borrowers if not most are borrowing 100% of their mortgage.
100% of 480k is 480k.. NOT 600k, mr math genius.
lol, exactly, but since you were having so much trouble grasping the concept that people couldn't be borrowing more than 600k on average if average home prices were less than 600k, I thought I'd have to point out the obvious.
Ok, that's it. You need to finish your replies over at the special olympics. This discussion is over.
It was over a long time ago. You just want to whine and moan about how you can't buy the house you want. So you make exagerated claims that aren't supported by the facts.
|
|
Wed Oct 05, 2005 11:42 am |
|
|
Rolo
Yo' Daddy
Cash: $ 309.70
Posts: 1551
Joined: 13 Mar 2005
Location: Colorado/Florida
|
Good grief shutdahellup both of you.
Your discussion isn't even controversial! heh
Even the aforementioned shitholes in SoCal are at a premium and have been for a loooooong time.
But many people (in and out of SoCal) are stretched on their mortgages and that is not a good idea...particularly with ARMs and such. Hey...people who put their heads in the sand can't complain when a beach ball gets stuck up their butt! 
"Expect me when you see me."
|
|
Thu Oct 06, 2005 12:00 am |
|
|
tss4
Contributing Member
Cash: $ 8.45
Posts: 42
Joined: 31 Jul 2005
|
lol, when did controversy become the criteria for a good arguement. Its about being stubborn.
|
|
Thu Oct 06, 2005 12:28 am |
|
|
Rolo
Yo' Daddy
Cash: $ 309.70
Posts: 1551
Joined: 13 Mar 2005
Location: Colorado/Florida
|
hehehehe g1
"Expect me when you see me."
|
|
Thu Oct 06, 2005 3:35 am |
|
|
bong12187
Preferred Member
Cash: $ 24.50
Posts: 120
Joined: 31 Jul 2005
|
quote:
Originally posted by Rolo
hehehehe g1
Ok, I read through the whole thread but really didn't learn anything from it. What is the bottom line of the argument/discussion again?
|
|
Fri Oct 14, 2005 2:29 am |
|
|
diego
Member
Cash: $ 2.70
Posts: 13
Joined: 14 Sep 2005
|
quote:
Originally posted by bong12187
quote:
Originally posted by Rolo
hehehehe g1
Ok, I read through the whole thread but really didn't learn anything from it. What is the bottom line of the argument/discussion again?
I'll summarize the thread for future readers:
"Real estate is overblown"
"No it's not"
"Yes it is"
"No it's not"
"Yes it is"
"You're an idiot"
"I know you are but what am I?"
Seriously, I think it all boiled down to opinion in the end. A few facts were presented, but hey- at least I've heard arguments for/against speculating/investing on real estate for he/she who can afford/finance said venture so long as they aren't financially/economically strapped/broke. 
|
|
Fri Oct 14, 2005 2:39 am |
|
|
oetalk.com
New Member
Cash: $ 0.55
Posts: 4
Joined: 16 Oct 2005
|
| property market |
|
|
In the uk a few years ago you ust to be able to buy any house/property and it wouldpractically double in value. But that has stopped in most areas now with the market peaking
|
|
Sun Oct 16, 2005 12:44 pm |
|
|
|
