SkyPilot
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Cash: $ 100.11
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Poetic licenses are authorized, just don't drive to fast 
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Thu Jun 30, 2005 2:03 pm |
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SkyPilot
Senior Member
Cash: $ 100.11
Posts: 492
Joined: 13 Mar 2005
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Yes, one has to be careful not to let individuals have too many choices to make. Better TSP participants have limited options, than make terrible choices and mismanage something, as they might not make wise, intelligent decisions... not unlike the FTRIB with the contract to update and modernize the TSP system... ooops! Hey, let spend another $10 million to tell people what they can learn for free by logging on to the TSP home page once in a while... or attach a note to their pay stub... or, never mind... 
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Thu Jun 30, 2005 6:47 pm |
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martyfoley
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Cash: $ 66.02
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Location: Northeast USA
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I think stock investors are seeing risk ahead, with earnings warnings etc., possibly due to the strong dollar, and would rather put the money to work in bonds rather than stocks, at least that's what it looks like today. Also, July and August are not the best months to be in stocks.
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Thu Jun 30, 2005 8:07 pm |
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greg
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Location: One Monkey Don't Stop No Show
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quote:
Originally posted by sarah
But that's precisely my question, Marty. Why invest in bonds if interest rates are rising? It's counterintuitive unless you think we're entering a recession....
If interest rate are rising and we enter a recession, wouldn't G-fund "out-perform" the F-fund? [/b]
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Fri Jul 01, 2005 1:47 am |
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martyfoley
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Location: Northeast USA
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From what I am hearing, most portfolio managers expect a weakening economy down the road, therefore, theoretically the F fund should outperform stocks. Stocks do the best when stock earnings are accelerating not decelerating as they are now. If this is true I can understand why the F fund is doing so well with a future weakening economy and stock investors selling shares and buying bonds. The Fed is really pushing it now raising short term rates, I think they should lay off for a while, which in turn would be better for stocks.
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Fri Jul 01, 2005 1:26 pm |
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SkyPilot
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Cash: $ 100.11
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Joined: 13 Mar 2005
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I think the Fed beleives that too far is barely far enough. After they tank the economy, then we will have another round of 8-10 rate cuts, just to get things going again... that is a scenario so predictable that one could probably play it for profit.
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Fri Jul 01, 2005 3:37 pm |
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pandashark
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the Wall Street Journal had a discussion between two economists or something a while back, one of them echoed those exact sentiments...The economy keeps going from crises to crises, and it's the fed's fault. They lead us "out" of one crisis and straight into a new one...and it seems to be happening again 
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Fri Jul 01, 2005 7:21 pm |
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SkyPilot
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Cash: $ 100.11
Posts: 492
Joined: 13 Mar 2005
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| Solid Fundamentals? Hope so... |
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So, if the market can digest these oil prices, rate increases and generally negative news reports from Iraq, I am thinking that the market is more robust than it appears. Given a chance, I am thinking that the markets are set to move higher, though it may take to the end of July to start to kick in.
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Sun Jul 03, 2005 6:36 pm |
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SkyPilot
Senior Member
Cash: $ 100.11
Posts: 492
Joined: 13 Mar 2005
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WINNER!! Wheels
CONGRATULATIONS Dave!!
Wheels +2.6%
martyfoley +1.9%
mlk_man +1.8%
Rajun Cajun +1.1%
SkyPilot +1%
sarah +.4%
trisha 0% (from 6/30)
rangerbob -.4% (from 6/21)
Wheels! Way to go!!!
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Tue Jul 05, 2005 11:40 am |
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Wheels
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Location: Nashua NH
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Thank you! Thank you! No more applause, please!
I was feeling pretty good around 9:00am today. I was still having a lousy year (down 1.8%) and the S and I funds were both higher than when I bailed on equities a couple of weeks ago, but at least my strong month helped me close in on the benchmark C fund. And the S&P futures were down over 4 points, oil was heading back up, and the dollar was on the rise. I thought maybe I could close the gap a little more on all the equity funds before jumping back into stocks. What a difference a couple of hours makes. Now the markets are going straight up with the S fund inparticular continuing it's meteoric rise.
So I guess my two decisions are: When to get back in and what fund. When is easy. I'd like to see the markets pull back about another 2 percent (sorry to all of you who are in the equity funds). But which fund is much harder. The S fund has been soooo strong. Do I get on board or is out of gas.
Thoughts?
Dave
Last edited by Wheels on Tue Jul 05, 2005 3:22 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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Tue Jul 05, 2005 3:19 pm |
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martyfoley
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Cash: $ 66.02
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Location: Northeast USA
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Congratulatons Wheels! You can't fight the tape here with the S-fund. It's outperforming so for tomorrow I'm in for 25%. I realize that it isn't much but should it pullback some I will increase my allocation. Hope everyone had a great weekend! Marty. 
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Tue Jul 05, 2005 4:51 pm |
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Wheels
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Location: Nashua NH
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Sometimes I think that even if I had all the major economic data 2 days early, I'd still wouldn't know what fund to be in. Today's manufacturing data is strong so the market says looks like the economy is looking up, jobs will pick up, so let's go way up. However had I been in the equity funds today the interpretation would have been, looks like the economy is picking up, inflation is going to pick up, the fed is going to raise rates more, let's go way down. I think I'll start throwing darts.
Dave
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Tue Jul 05, 2005 5:39 pm |
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Wheels
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Location: Nashua NH
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The bounce has already started and the market is not even open yet. One analyst I read believes the market will be UP by today's close.
Dave
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Thu Jul 07, 2005 1:07 pm |
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martyfoley
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Location: Northeast USA
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Going 100%G for tomorrow. I think the events in London will shift investor psychology from bullish to bearish. The C-fund has broken some support and may start a new leg down which in turn will negatively affect the S-fund which has been doing so well of late. The European economy will certainly be more affected by this regarding the I-fund in the negative sense. Will just sit back and see what develops, but my hunch is that we are going down for a while. Marty. 
p.s. Regarding the F-fund bonds will enjoy a bounce from this but even that game is starting to look tired.
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Thu Jul 07, 2005 3:53 pm |
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Rajun Cajun
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Sure thought we'd see a double digit S&P loss today, but markets holding steady. I am at a loss. High oil, bombing, summer doldrums, and the markets hold tough.
Is this sign of strength or a last gasp before we a slide like last July/August?
Sure wish I knew.
No changes for me 20S 10I 5F rest in G
Rajun Cajun
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Thu Jul 07, 2005 4:49 pm |
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