Wheels
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Location: Nashua NH
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I'd be shocked if the fed funds rate got anywhere near there in the next couple of years. It would be cool if it happened in a few years though. Then I could park my money there for my last few years and I'd know I was going to get my 11 or 12% return each year. Of course the down side would be 15% mortgages and inflation running at 8 or 9% a year.
Dave
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Thu Mar 31, 2005 4:06 am |
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greg
Senior Member
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Location: One Monkey Don't Stop No Show
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I was surprized that the I-fund share price did not go up today.
It stayed at 15.37, same as Tuesday.
Do ya'll think now is a good time to buy the I-fund?
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Thu Mar 31, 2005 5:54 am |
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martyfoley
Senior Member
Cash: $ 66.02
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Joined: 18 Mar 2005
Location: Northeast USA
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| FYI |
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Here's are some interesting comments from Zacks.com;
"Thus far in 2005, the economy has been humming. This should
lead to good earnings reports beginning in April. And unless
there is a sustained rise in energy prices, which is unlikely,
the economy will expand at a comfortable pace for the rest of
this year. The economy could actually receive a boost should
energy prices fall, as Collins expects. The ideal situation
would be for oil to fall in price to the 40`s and for the Fed
to continue its moderate rate increases until it hits neutral-
about 3.75% to 4.00%. Expectations are for the economy to
gradually return to its long term trend growth rate of 3.2%.
Most economists are forecasting real growth of 3.7% in 2005 and
3.4% in 2006. Consumer prices are expected to be up 2.5% in
2005 and 2.3% in 2006. If the economy gradually returns to its
long term real growth rate of 3.2% and inflation stays under
2.5%, stocks should do very well…particularly small- and mid-
cap growth stocks.
Much like 2004, the performance of stocks has not fully
reflected their growth in earnings. This leaves investors with
another entry opportunity. In fact, the trailing P/E on the S&P
500 is at its lowest level in 10 years. You have to go back to
1990 to find a similar P/E for the S&P 500 when looking four
quarters forward. Smaller stocks are even more attractive.
While stock prices will be somewhat constrained by rising
interest rates, all indicators point to a successful 2005 for
investors".
Top Dog for March and May 06!
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Thu Mar 31, 2005 2:10 pm |
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martyfoley
Senior Member
Cash: $ 66.02
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Location: Northeast USA
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| Conservative (nearing retirement) Allocations Comments |
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For today I will increase I-Fund 1% to 19%. Allocations will be G-37%, S-19%, I-19%, C-25%, F-0%. Now that the $ has broken 84.00 to the downside this morning we'll see how much downside momentum there is. The I-Fund should head up now. The dollar will have to continue its slide however and break support below 81.50. Stay tuned.
Many money managers are getting bearish on the US Equity markets. The Nasdaq has been very weak lately and has been underperforming the other indexes. We do need to see this change to get a better stock market rally. I believe this is a time to be vigilant because higher interest rates as well as a high oil price will put a damper on the rally. If oil comes down somewhat this will help fuel this next rally, but if it stays stubbornly high the rally won't have much momentum. We'll have to wait and see. For now let's hope a bottom is forming and that oil eases back. Good Luck!
Top Dog for March and May 06!
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Thu Mar 31, 2005 3:41 pm |
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martyfoley
Senior Member
Cash: $ 66.02
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Location: Northeast USA
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| The Unexpected Can Happen |
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Sarah, I agree with you. Zacks.com seems overly optimistic. I posted that piece to let members know their views. We do have to remember that the stock market looks to the future. Trends can and do continue until something happens that is serious enough to change investors outlooks. We do have to try to anticipate what will cause a shift. Company earnings drive the markets, but they can be adversly effected buy a spike in energy prices and interest rates, inflation, or even a stronger $ making their goods less competitive in the world marketplace. All basic stuff, but the markets are constantly trying to anticipate these things and their effect on future company earnings. When something unexpected happens like a terrorist attack, death of a president, for example, and panic ensues a good buying opportunity can present itself providing you have some cash available. (G fund). Investing is never easy. It is nothing more than an educated guess, cutting losses quickly, and letting your profits run until overbought conditions arise. Currently I feel the odds are in favor of some sort of rally but the unexpected can happen at any time. Should the markets rally (hopefully) I will be selling into strength. Good Luck!
Top Dog for March and May 06!
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Thu Mar 31, 2005 6:04 pm |
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Wheels
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Location: Nashua NH
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Jobs report very soft. The dollar markedly down. Equities off to the races. Another crappy day to be outside looking in. Need a good point to get into the I fund but I don't know if this it it. I would prefer to buy some weakness, not a couple of days of super strength. I've got a couple of hours yet to shit or get off the pot.
Dave
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Fri Apr 01, 2005 2:48 pm |
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Wheels
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Location: Nashua NH
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OK. Less than an hour later. Stocks settling back down to almost even. Dollar recovering to almost even. Can't possibly know what this day will look like when all is said and done Soooo I think I will pull the trigger and go 50 C and 50 I today for Monday. If the dollar index breaks below 83.5, I will throw the rest into the I.
Dave
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Fri Apr 01, 2005 3:25 pm |
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dmanos
Member
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Location: Texas
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I did manage to get 15% into the I fund at the close of yesterday. 
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Fri Apr 01, 2005 4:01 pm |
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Rajun Cajun
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Location: Texas
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I've asked this question on another board, and I do NOT mean to sound insensitive to Catholics, but what effect, if any, would the Pope's death have on markets?
I think that even though it's expected, there would be some shock, and his funeral and uncertainty of picking his successor would be headline news until it's over. Back in the late 70s when this Pope took over, it was BIG NEWS!
Respectfully,
RC
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Fri Apr 01, 2005 4:23 pm |
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martyfoley
Senior Member
Cash: $ 66.02
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Location: Northeast USA
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| Conservative (nearing retirement) TSP Chat. |
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G-46%, S-19%, I-10%, C-25%, F-0%. Decreasing I Fund 10% today on dollar concerns. Dollar is having a field day today and is getting closer to breaking resistance. The nearby futures contract is up .53 to 84.58 after completing a bullish flag formation. If the dollar continues up and breaks it's major downtrend line I would have to say goodbye to my I-fund holding. The 50 day moving average caved at 83.40 or so which is also bullish. I could be wrong but the dollar with higher interest rates has the wind at its back. As I previously mentioned there doesn't appear to be the sufficient downside momentum that I was hoping for to benefit the I-fund. Sorry folks but until it changes, I'll have to get more bearish for the I-fund. Also it appears we are going to retest the lows in the C and S funds, hopefully they will hold. Good Luck!
Top Dog for March and May 06!
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Fri Apr 01, 2005 4:27 pm |
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martyfoley
Senior Member
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Joined: 18 Mar 2005
Location: Northeast USA
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| US $ Field Day |
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Sarah, I agree as mentioned previously, we haven't gone above the Feb high and March high trendline yet but we are mighty close. Also the 200 day moving average is declining and sitting at about 85.50 which the dollar will still have to go thru to start attracting the speculators. I was expecting a stronger move downward from this short term overbought condition, which we still may get as we close in on the 200 day moving average but because of today's strong upmove I thought I would lighten up on the I fund just in case the dollar continues up here. If something which should go down because of terrible fundamentals refuses to do so, even short term, we have to accept the fact that maybe, just maybe, a turning point is at hand. The dollar has fallen for a long time now, we have a higher low on the chart, were approaching some stiff resistance, and until we see the current (old) downward trend reassert itself in a meaningful manner, I thnk it behooves us to be very cautious here about the I-fund. I still have a small position in the I-fund should the dollar fall apart at the 200 day moving average, and I can still increase it but if we plow thru it all bets are off!
Top Dog for March and May 06!
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Fri Apr 01, 2005 6:07 pm |
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Wheels
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Location: Nashua NH
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I'm pretty comfortable with the 50% I threw into the I for Monday. If the dollar breaks through resistance at 85.50 I'll bail, if it drops through 83.50 I'll throw the other 50% in, and if it waffles right here, then so will I.
Dave
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Fri Apr 01, 2005 7:11 pm |
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dmanos
Member
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Congrats Marty!
BTW, ya'll can call me Donnie.
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Sun Apr 03, 2005 3:30 am |
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martyfoley
Senior Member
Cash: $ 66.02
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Joined: 18 Mar 2005
Location: Northeast USA
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| Very cautious now. |
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Thanks Sarah and Donnie;
Sarah I don't know how you calculated the returns but it must get quite involved! Well folks, I think we are at a critical juncture. Have you seen the Dow Ind chart? It certainly appears the Dow may break near term support. If that does happen it will cast a negative chill in the C and S funds and cause me to lighten up on them short term as we could accelerate to the downside. It would be nice to have plenty of ammunition in the G fund should we have a nasty selloff. Unfortunatley I am getting more bearish. I'm trying to figure out what the catalyst for the next rally might be and can't really think of anything other than we are oversold short term. Energy costs are rising, we have more inflation, the dollar has been rallying, and interest rates continuing to rise into the future. What will get a rally going? Any idea's anyone?
Top Dog for March and May 06!
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Sun Apr 03, 2005 4:43 pm |
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Attitude
New Member
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| Re: Very cautious now. |
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quote:
Originally posted by martyfoley
What will get a rally going? Any idea's anyone?
How about the upcoming earnings announcement season?
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Sun Apr 03, 2005 9:03 pm |
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