Divot
Member
Cash: $ 4.10
Posts: 20
Joined: 28 May 2007
Location: Phoenix, AZ
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| Divot's TSP Allocation |
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You may have heard - there was some big trouble in Shanghai yesterday. They're at it again: the Shanghai SSE index was down over 5% earlier in today's trading, but has recovered somewhat to about 3% south from the open.
Shanghai is - honestly - irrelevant to how I manage my money...
Read the rest of the blog post to understand why.
I'm currently 20% G, 70% S, and 10% I.
- Divot
http://tsptrader.blogspot.com
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Thu May 31, 2007 3:56 am |
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Divot
Member
Cash: $ 4.10
Posts: 20
Joined: 28 May 2007
Location: Phoenix, AZ
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| Increasing strength... you sure it wasn't "BUY in May&q |
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Bottom line up front: Short term indicators strengthened today. No reasons to move away from stocks.
* Fund allocation is currently 20% G / 70% S / 10% I.
* My YTD gain is 5.7%.
I've been asked quite a few excellent questions from readers concerning how I use bullish percents to accomplish risk management.
Read the rest of the post on my blog for a discussion of my favorite market gauge.
- Divot
http://tsptrader.blogspot.com
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Fri Jun 01, 2007 2:58 am |
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2006buckeye
New Member
Cash: $ 1.50
Posts: 7
Joined: 03 Jun 2007
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This may be a naive question, but what do G, S, and I stand for?
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Mon Jun 04, 2007 12:08 am |
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marco59
Full Member
Cash: $ 18.45
Posts: 92
Joined: 11 May 2006
Location: Down East Maine
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hello 2006buckeye,
for more about the individual funds...check out this website...
www.tsp.gov.
you don't need to log in, but click on returns....and there is info about each fund
good luck
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Mon Jun 04, 2007 12:20 am |
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2006buckeye
New Member
Cash: $ 1.50
Posts: 7
Joined: 03 Jun 2007
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Thanks for your timely response!
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Mon Jun 04, 2007 12:23 am |
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Divot
Member
Cash: $ 4.10
Posts: 20
Joined: 28 May 2007
Location: Phoenix, AZ
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| New Blog Post - Chasing Returns |
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What's more important: Winning bigger or losing less often?
Time for a mid-year checkup of your Thrift Savings Plan account. How are your retirement plans doing?
For those curious about the benefits of market bullish percent analysis, read the rest of my latest blog post. I think you'll find it very interesting.
Best of luck to all this week!
- Divot
http://tsptrader.blogspot.com
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Mon Jun 04, 2007 4:04 am |
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Divot
Member
Cash: $ 4.10
Posts: 20
Joined: 28 May 2007
Location: Phoenix, AZ
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| New Blog Post - Warning Signs Ahead |
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The last two days in the markets have been really interesting - tomorrow is really important. If this is just a little temporary dip in a continuing uptrend, we'll know it tomorrow. So far, all we've seen is a 1-2 % pause. So, the Bottom Line Up Front: if the markets decline out of the gate tomorrow morning, I will scale out of stocks to a 50% Government bond / 50% Small Cap allocation.
Explore my rationale at the blog:
- Divot
http://tsptrader.blogspot.com
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Thu Jun 07, 2007 4:24 am |
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Divot
Member
Cash: $ 4.10
Posts: 20
Joined: 28 May 2007
Location: Phoenix, AZ
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| Yep - that's kinda what I thought we'd see |
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Rather than the 11AM buy programs, today we're seeing the 11AM sell programs. This doesn't smell like Mr. Retail Investor to me. I said last night I'd consider going 50% Small Cap / 50% Gov't Bond. Based on what we're seeing (and at the risk of getting whipsawed a second time this year) - I'm going 100% Gov't bond as of close of business today.
- Divot
http://tsptrader.blogspot.com
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Thu Jun 07, 2007 3:26 pm |
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Divot
Member
Cash: $ 4.10
Posts: 20
Joined: 28 May 2007
Location: Phoenix, AZ
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| Swoop, there it is... |
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For all those expecting, waiting, holding their breath, knowing it was just around the corner... this was your correction. If my calculations are correct - it may actually be just the start of something more substantial.
Read the rest of my scintillating analysis on my blog!
- Divot
http://tsptrader.blogspot.com
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Fri Jun 08, 2007 3:42 am |
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Divot
Member
Cash: $ 4.10
Posts: 20
Joined: 28 May 2007
Location: Phoenix, AZ
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| A day early, and a dollar short |
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After my last blog post, and the market's Friday rally, some might be waiting for my public retraction and repentance from all thoughts bearish. I hate to disappoint my readers... but don't hold your breath.
Read the rest of my blog post to understand why...
- Divot
http://tsptrader.blogspot.com
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Mon Jun 11, 2007 3:48 am |
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Divot
Member
Cash: $ 4.10
Posts: 20
Joined: 28 May 2007
Location: Phoenix, AZ
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| No, no - you go first |
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Buyers and sellers had on their best poker faces Monday. No one really wanted to lay anything on the line, which is interesting from both the bullish and bearish points of view.
I'm making a fund allocation change effective today - read the rest at my blog.
- Divot
http://tsptrader.blogspot.com
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Tue Jun 12, 2007 4:02 pm |
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Divot
Member
Cash: $ 4.10
Posts: 20
Joined: 28 May 2007
Location: Phoenix, AZ
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| New Blog Post - Knife Catching |
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Read why I'm back in the F Fund at my blog - you'll learn something about fibonacci retracements!
- Divot
http://tsptrader.blogspot.com
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Wed Jun 13, 2007 7:47 am |
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Divot
Member
Cash: $ 4.10
Posts: 20
Joined: 28 May 2007
Location: Phoenix, AZ
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| New Blog Post - Bias and Self Validation |
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It's important to look at the markets without bias. Being unaware of one's own bias can result in at least missed opportunities, or worse, swimming upstream with a poor risk/reward profile. For most, it's tough to avoid a "bullish" bias. This is, of course, the predominant "retail investor" perspective. This perspective on the markets believes that the only way money is made is for prices to rise. "Buy low and sell high." At least as far as our TSP accounts go, that's true. The TSP doesn't offer any inversely correlated funds, and there's definitely no way to short the markets.
Read the rest of the post at my blog, along with expectations and gameplan for the coming week!
- Divot
http://tsptrader.blogspot.com
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Sat Jun 16, 2007 11:11 pm |
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Divot
Member
Cash: $ 4.10
Posts: 20
Joined: 28 May 2007
Location: Phoenix, AZ
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| A slippery slope (in US markets) |
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The best word to describe Wall Street today was "parabolic." As I discussed in yesterday's post, going long at the open with tight stops could have turned out quite profitably. Assuming you became bored around mid-day and sold before the crowds.
The big news of the day was the bullish percents. These were completely clobbered today. Whacked. Crushed. Beaten with the ugly stick. Today's declines in bullish percents would have been significant if they took place over the course of a week, but THIS MUCH in one day should cause notice.
See the charts at my blog and read why I'm moving some of my money into the "I Fund" tomorrow.
- Divot
http://tsptrader.blogspot.com
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Tue Jun 26, 2007 3:45 am |
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Case-Face
Full Member
Cash: $ 0.35
Posts: 75
Joined: 21 May 2007
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| ? |
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What does "SSE index" mean exactly?
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Fri Jul 20, 2007 2:09 pm |
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