| Could I ask my investor this? (INTC Analysis) |
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Carl172
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| Could I ask my investor this? (INTC Analysis) |
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I've got most of my assets managed by an investor, but since I'm young and still trying to learn what I can about investing, I've opened up a scottrade account. I've since only purchased one stock, (INTC). I've watched the price fall, but it wasn't alot of money, so I'm not worried about it, I believe it'll come back up here soon.
Anyway back on subject, do you think there is anything wrong in asking my investor to give me some ideas on stocks or ETF's to look at, to buy on my own?
The firm he works at charges $50.00 in commission, and scottrade is only $7.00. We're talking about a percent of what he's already managing for me.
Thanks,
Carl
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Mon May 15, 2006 5:33 pm |
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Carl172
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Ok, I thought since it's such a small amount compared to what he's already got of mine, it would be alright, but I do understand how it could be a conflict of interest. I'll refrain from asking him.
Thanks
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Tue May 16, 2006 12:04 am |
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Rolo
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| Re: Could I ask my investor this? |
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quote:
Originally posted by Carl172
I've watched the price fall, but it wasn't alot of money, so I'm not worried about it,
If you cannot manage a little money properly, you will not manage a lot of money properly.
quote:
Originally posted by Carl172
I believe it'll come back up here soon.
Why do you "believe" that? What basis do you have to think that? Do you have a reasoned, articulated argument for that or are you just hoping?
Emotion and money do not mix.
"Expect me when you see me."
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Wed May 17, 2006 1:49 am |
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Carl172
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| Re: Could I ask my investor this? |
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quote:
Originally posted by Rolo
If you cannot manage a little money properly, you will not manage a lot of money properly.
Thanks. I'm trying to work on that.
quote:
Originally posted by Rolo
Why do you "believe" that? What basis do you have to think that? Do you have a reasoned, articulated argument for that or are you just hoping?
Emotion and money do not mix.
Well since you asked, to be honest, my reasons would probably be considered more emotional at this point. I know it's not always the case, but the stock is near it's 52 week low, and it's a well known stock. I see it going up. I know theres many more factors, but like I said, I'm still trying to learn what makes a good stock. I'm working on the logical side but it's not something you learn over night. Best I can do is read and ask questions right now. I figure I can afford 1% of my investment assets to try to learn some investing on my own.
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Wed May 17, 2006 2:48 am |
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Carl172
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Thank's Tim. I'll keep that in mind from now on.
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Wed May 17, 2006 7:02 am |
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ashraf
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| Re: Could I ask my investor this? |
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quote:
Originally posted by Carl172
I've got most of my assets managed by an investor, but since I'm young and still trying to learn what I can about investing, I've opened up a scottrade account. I've since only purchased one stock, (INTC). I've watched the price fall, but it wasn't alot of money, so I'm not worried about it, I believe it'll come back up here soon.
Anyway back on subject, do you think there is anything wrong in asking my investor to give me some ideas on stocks or ETF's to look at, to buy on my own?
The firm he works at charges $50.00 in commission, and scottrade is only $7.00. We're talking about a percent of what he's already managing for me.
Thanks,
Carl
Can you see the Elliott Waves from the chart below?. I would not buy INTC at this stage even if it is the most profitable company in the world today.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=INTC&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p18964688944
You can not become free by accepting to be occupied
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Wed May 17, 2006 7:15 am |
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Rolo
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Hey ashraf, I didn't know you were a technical type dude!
Everything about that chart says Intel is going DOWN.
There is a distinct downward slope since mid 05. The rally there is a result of selling out of a losing long position. The monster sell-off afterwards (Jan 06) confirms this. Twice in the past six months you had 280 MILLION shares sold that killed the price and gapped it lower...the pros who move the market think Intel is a losing proposition. Do the math: that's $6.3 BILLION dollars against your 1%.
Recently, the bulls thought it was a good buy (April) but the bears smacked them back down (Dark Cloud Cover). Currently, they are deadlocked at $19 as evidenced by this week's doji.
If it does reverse off of 19, you may be able to make a little short-term ($20-21), but the intermediate-term picture shows a down-channel...very risky. Don't go against the flow: you will be crushed by the Juggernauts (the institutional investors).
If you are an investor, INTC may pan out in 3-5 years. If you are a trader, dump it now and move on. Either way, I think you can find greener pastures. Look towards winning sectors. Precious metals just went on sale three days ago.
"Expect me when you see me."
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Wed May 17, 2006 12:18 pm |
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Toto
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You could go to the NXG thread. There are windows into IBD and Bar charts there that will give you something to think about for free.
A combination of fundamentals and technicals is probably the best way to go. Fundamentals looks at the free cash flow. All businesses are essentially cash pumps. Learn to see them that way.
As Rolo says, invest in the better sectors and keep track of them.
I would advise you to set up a watchlist and wait until Octobe to invest. In the beginning of October, stocks are cheaper.
My name is Toto and I am a stockoholic! 
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Thu May 18, 2006 1:59 am |
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Carl172
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Well I've definitely got time on my side, so I can use this stock as a learning experience. Is there a chart that may depict when a stock price may stop descending, and climb again?
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Thu May 18, 2006 3:43 am |
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David Briggs
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Carl I like Intel at these levels, and also recommend to you SMH for a chips-as- commodity proxy.
You can get rich just knowing how INTC moves. Own it, watch it, study it. Build inventories of it at its cheapest levels. And diversify further into other undervalued areas with each successive position you can afford to take.
~~David
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Thu May 18, 2006 4:55 am |
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ashraf
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quote:
Originally posted by Rolo
Hey ashraf, I didn't know you were a technical type dude!
Everything about that chart says Intel is going DOWN.
There is a distinct downward slope since mid 05. The rally there is a result of selling out of a losing long position. The monster sell-off afterwards (Jan 06) confirms this. Twice in the past six months you had 280 MILLION shares sold that killed the price and gapped it lower...the pros who move the market think Intel is a losing proposition. Do the math: that's $6.3 BILLION dollars against your 1%.
Recently, the bulls thought it was a good buy (April) but the bears smacked them back down (Dark Cloud Cover). Currently, they are deadlocked at $19 as evidenced by this week's doji.
If it does reverse off of 19, you may be able to make a little short-term ($20-21), but the intermediate-term picture shows a down-channel...very risky. Don't go against the flow: you will be crushed by the Juggernauts (the institutional investors).
If you are an investor, INTC may pan out in 3-5 years. If you are a trader, dump it now and move on. Either way, I think you can find greener pastures. Look towards winning sectors. Precious metals just went on sale three days ago.
Yeah I depend mostly on technical analysis when picking stocks although some fundamental ratios such as debt/equity are very important according to my criteria because of financial and religious reasons as well. Accordng to the stage analyisis theory which was developed by Stan Weinstein - and yes I know he is a Jew - INTC is currently in stage 4. So regardless of the fundamental strength it might have, it will keep going down until it begins to form stage 1 "the base". Stan stresses on never to buy a stock while it is in stage 4 and I am following this rule. INTC however would be ideal for shorts - but I never short. It helps also to look at the linear regression for weekly charts to observe the overall trend of the stock. As you could see below, it is obviously a downtrend.
INTC Chart
<I fixed the URL for you because it was so long it was stretching the text pane off screen - Coaster>
You can not become free by accepting to be occupied
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Thu May 18, 2006 8:30 am |
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Rolo
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quote:
Originally posted by ashraf
Accordng to the stage analyisis theory which was developed by Stan Weinstein - and yes I know he is a Jew - INTC is currently in stage 4. So regardless of the fundamental strength it might have, it will keep going down until it begins to form stage 1 "the base". Stan stresses on never to buy a stock while it is in stage 4 and I am following this rule.
ROFL! His book is on my to-buy list...guess I gotta get to it soon (after Murphy's hefty book).
I think you are totally correct on INTC. Those HUGE sell-offs, I do think, PREDICT the future. *ahemcoughcoughcoaster*
"Expect me when you see me."
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Fri May 19, 2006 11:55 pm |
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David Briggs
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INTC is not as conservative as SMH, an ETF which has INTC as a large part of its portfolio, but has all kinds of logic and memory presences. Both INTC and SMH are overdue for return-to-the-mean. They have been beaten down, and a rebound is inevitable.
You see the weakness? Do you believe it is justified? Are cheap imports going to kill Silicon Valley? Is theft of intellectual property by pirates with factories going to collapse the American chip industry? The doubt inherent in the answers to this kind of question is what accounts for the opportunity to invest in semiconductors right now. Where is the bottom? Not far from here, I say. Build now.
~~David
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Sat May 20, 2006 4:11 am |
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Rolo
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quote:
Originally posted by David Briggs
Where is the bottom? Not far from here, I say. Build now.
Why not wait for the bottome and a confirmation of the reversal off of that bottom? Currently, INTC it at a 3-year low and the trend points down. INTC wouldn't be the first blue-chip stock-gone-to-$4.
"Expect me when you see me."
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Sat May 20, 2006 11:16 am |
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ashraf
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quote:
Originally posted by coaster
quote:
Originally posted by David Briggs
... Both INTC and SMH are overdue for return-to-the-mean. They have been beaten down, and a rebound is inevitable....
Except return to the mean applies only to a full data set, not to individual items in the set. Therefore, the principal can't be applied to one stock, saying a "rebound is inevitable" with any surety, and certainly not within any timeframe. Yes, INTC will be back, but who knows if and how much farther down it will go first, and how long the investor will have to wait. I think the capital can be put to more productive use by investing in stocks that have already put in a bottom, not ones that are still going down.
Even stocks which are in bottom should be dealt with extreme caution since alot of resistance levels lie overhead. .
You can not become free by accepting to be occupied
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Sat May 20, 2006 1:09 pm |
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