SkyPilot
Senior Member
Cash: $ 100.11
Posts: 492
Joined: 13 Mar 2005
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| I Fund |
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Amazing! I was sure that I was hit last night, so what a pleasant suprise to see the I up by about the amount I thought it would be down. I will probably bail today if there is any kind of up trend at all.
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Wed Mar 16, 2005 12:54 pm |
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Rolo
Yo' Daddy
Cash: $ 309.70
Posts: 1551
Joined: 13 Mar 2005
Location: Colorado/Florida
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Still 75/25 I/C. If C splats below 1184 support and makes a new low, I will go 100% I. I'm thinkin' C is makin' a sloppy W.
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Wed Mar 16, 2005 10:58 pm |
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Wheels
Preferred Member
Cash: $ 21.52
Posts: 106
Joined: 17 Mar 2005
Location: Nashua NH
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Sarah said "IMHO, the dollar is preparing to crash thru record lows that have held so many times before...."
1st. Thank you to Sarah for introducing me to this board. The conversation over here certainly seems to be a little more constructive than Tom's board (because of you know who). MLK, it's nice to see you again, for what it's worth I think Tom chose the wrong guy to boot.
I've been in the G for about 3 weeks or so. I missed the run up a few weeks ago but I've also missed this significant downturn which is nice. It's incredible how well the I has fared during the slide. I've been looking for an opportunity to get back into the stock funds, particularly the I fund. I think the C fund is getting pretty close to support so I am getting close. However I am a little wary of the I fund right for 2 reasons. First, as I mentioned on the other board, the I has had quite a run and everybody and I mean everybody is getting bullish on the I fund so from a contrarian sentiment point of view, I'm concerned that the I might be setting up for a let down. And 2nd, the dollar index is approaching support (roughly 80) and there is at least a fair chance that it will spend the next few weeks slowly climbing back to a top(86-90). Which brings me to the point of my post (whew! finally) Sarah, why do you think the dollar is going to crash through support as you mentioned above?
Future posts will be more concise, I promise.
Dave
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Thu Mar 17, 2005 4:16 am |
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Wheels
Preferred Member
Cash: $ 21.52
Posts: 106
Joined: 17 Mar 2005
Location: Nashua NH
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| 50 day moving average |
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OK. I'm ready for my next lesson. Are you charting the 50 day yourself or are you getting it somewhere? Why 50 day and not 200 day or 10 day? Where can I get it for the S&P (or the dollar, or the Nasdaq, or...)
Thanks,
Dave
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Thu Mar 17, 2005 12:36 pm |
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Andrew
Admin
Cash: $ 467.10
Posts: 1717
Joined: 02 Nov 2003
Location: Texas
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Sorry about the spam, people. We try to nuke it as soon as possible, thanks to Sarah for the alert.
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Thu Mar 17, 2005 3:48 pm |
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SkyPilot
Senior Member
Cash: $ 100.11
Posts: 492
Joined: 13 Mar 2005
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I am 100 G for Friday. I have made a couple of moves in and out of the market for about %.5 gain this week, which is better than I have been doing. Will look for bargains tomorrow, and if nothing is cheap will stay in G for monday. I will stay out of F fund unless things look like their going south in a major way. Am looking for another opportunity to buy the I, as I can understand "weak dollar, I fund goes up" better than some of the other rational for C and S.
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Thu Mar 17, 2005 8:13 pm |
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SkyPilot
Senior Member
Cash: $ 100.11
Posts: 492
Joined: 13 Mar 2005
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quote:
Originally posted by Andrew
Sorry about the spam, people. We try to nuke it as soon as possible, thanks to Sarah for the alert.
Thanks! I appreciate your diligence. 
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Thu Mar 17, 2005 9:30 pm |
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Dan_NJ
Contributing Member
Cash: $ 5.65
Posts: 28
Joined: 15 Mar 2005
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| Re: TSP Allocation Changes? |
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quote:
Originally posted by sarah
Should we start another forum just for posting our TSP allocation changes? What you do think? Might help us keep score.. 
Good idea! I'm 30 C, 30 S, 40 I.
Dan
BTW Sarah, does your knowledge of the market come from education, job, just a hobby, or all of the above? Just curious. Thanks
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Thu Mar 17, 2005 11:14 pm |
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Wheels
Preferred Member
Cash: $ 21.52
Posts: 106
Joined: 17 Mar 2005
Location: Nashua NH
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| Dollar |
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I am 100% G right now. I will likely make a move into stocks today (barring a huge run-up prior to noon). I'm thinking C for now. Here's my amateurish logic. Those of you with more experience feel free to shoot some holes in it. First, the S&P is sitting at the lower end of a pretty established trading range so it could well rise for the next few weeks. As far as the S is concerned, I've read many times that when you get about 2 years into a bull market money is supposed rotate out of smaller caps and into larger caps. Also, in a rising interest rate environment, this is also suppose to happen. Over the last 2 weeks, this hasn't happened at all but I'm thinking that next weeks FOMC meeting and the .25 or .50 increase will serve as a reminder to the markets and the C will outperform the S in the short term. As far as the I is concerned, I'm reading that the dollars sell off this past week has been a little overdone and that there have been some positive developments for the dollar and again the interest rate increase next week will also be positive for the dollar. I'm certainly not expecting a long term rally for the dollar, just some relative strength for a week or two. Then I will likely move into the I.
Wow. I promised that my next post would be more concise. Oh well, I'll try again next time. Please feel free to tell me where my logic is flawed. I want to learn.
Thanks,
Dave
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Fri Mar 18, 2005 2:29 pm |
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SkyPilot
Senior Member
Cash: $ 100.11
Posts: 492
Joined: 13 Mar 2005
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| Federal TSP Allocations |
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If we post, would it be Okay to post at or near the deadline, or just past it? Many times I make up my mind several times before the deadline, and this would result in multiple posts. I am not concerned that anyone would be likely to want to match my allocations, and I don't want to suffer from that pressure anyway. I would feel more comfortable posting what I lock in at, as opposed to what I might do.
As of right now, this minute, I think I will buy the S fund, as it is down past .20, and may be room for increase on Monday, depending on what it looks like closer to the deadline. I am 100% G right now, and it looks like I will preserve some capital today.
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Fri Mar 18, 2005 3:37 pm |
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Wheels
Preferred Member
Cash: $ 21.52
Posts: 106
Joined: 17 Mar 2005
Location: Nashua NH
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| Re: Bull Markets and the Dollar |
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Why do you think the dollar sell off is overdone? Yes, the interest rate increase next week MIGHT be positive for the dollar..but then again, isn't that rate increase already factored in?
Just from reading a few articles. Those articles pointed out that there has been some recent, positive developments for the dollar that have been ignored. From what I can see (and keep in mind I am very new at watching the dollar),the dollar index has been trading in a range from 80-81 to about 85-87. Since there has been some strength this week around 81, I'm thinking that it is not going to break through support on this go around and therefore may be back on the way up to 85 or so. And yes I think a quarter point is already factored in but there is an awful lot of speculation that the language will be more hawkish and that could strenghten the dollar in the short term.
We'll see. Made the move to 100% C. I'll go start an allocation thread and see if I keep up with it. I started one on the other board about a year ago but I didn't keep up with it for very long.
Dave
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Fri Mar 18, 2005 4:11 pm |
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martyfoley
Senior Member
Cash: $ 66.02
Posts: 404
Joined: 18 Mar 2005
Location: Northeast USA
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| TSP Allocations |
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Hi Everyone;
I devised a little system for use with the TSP funds. It is mainly for people who are nearing retirement and don't want to take big chances. The most you will ever have in the S, I, and C funds (equites) will be 75% at one time. I'm glad I found this site so I can share this system with you. We can invest together and chat about it. I started today and my current allocations (effective 3/21/05) are as follows;
I Fund 0%
S-Fund 13%
C-Fund 14%
G-Fund 73%
I know this sounds very conservative as we start but depending on what the markets do these allocations will change daily. I will post them daily on Federal TSP Allocations Forum. If you believe as I do that we are currently in a bull market then join along. If you think the markets are due for a fall then by all means stay in the G-fund. I will post changes in allocations around 11:00am weekdays so you can change your allocations before 12 Noon EST. I am open to suggestions so please email me. Let's try to increase our retirement funds together! By the way the system I use has been a friend of mine for many years so I'm very familiar with it. Let us get on with it and let the system work for us thru the magic of compounding!
Top Dog for March and May 06!
Last edited by martyfoley on Sat Mar 19, 2005 2:26 am; edited 1 time in total |
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Fri Mar 18, 2005 9:27 pm |
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SkyPilot
Senior Member
Cash: $ 100.11
Posts: 492
Joined: 13 Mar 2005
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| Today's Market |
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The first half of my strategy worked, as the S fund is off better than .4% today. Now, I hope to see a recovery in the S and will take the gains off the table and wait for another bargain while sitting safely in the G fund. Have a great weekend!
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Fri Mar 18, 2005 9:50 pm |
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martyfoley
Senior Member
Cash: $ 66.02
Posts: 404
Joined: 18 Mar 2005
Location: Northeast USA
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| Backtesting System |
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First of all I created an indicator that lets the markets tell me what my allocation should be according to its own calculations. It's a mechanical system which does not know the meaning of fear or greed. You will be buying at the scariest times and selling when everyone is telling you that you are crazy! Catching the absolute bottom or the absolute top is a fool's game. It's the 85% in the middle that we are after. I've come up with this indicator 20 years ago and have backtested it many times. It does not lie! It will test you emotionally because you will not want to do what it tells you to do! The hard part is believing in it, and then the rest is easy providing you have the nerve to follow its recommendations. Yes I have made money using it, and I now believe it will help you too providing we stay in this bull market and we don't have interest rates going way up or a terrorist attack here. The name of the game is preserving what you gain which is the hardest thing to do. So let's give it a try. I will have updated allocations Monday at 11 am. Thanks for reading and good luck to all!
Top Dog for March and May 06!
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Sat Mar 19, 2005 1:03 am |
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SkyPilot
Senior Member
Cash: $ 100.11
Posts: 492
Joined: 13 Mar 2005
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Today is messy... however, this may be time to buy the I fund (off .8%). Will take one more jump before going back to the cradle of the G fund.
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Mon Mar 21, 2005 4:31 pm |
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