| When will the US recover? |
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samurai
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| When will the US recover? |
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Since I was a little boy, it is the dream of almost everyone here in my country to migrate to the US. We all wanted the American Dream.
And given a chance we would convert our local currency to US dollars. True enough, from about 12 to the dollar in the 70's, our currency fell to about 55 to the dollar in 2002. But something happened cuz the dollar has been depreciating rapidly in the last 4 years, and is now almost 40 to the dollar and will fall further. The benefits that Americans have had, like job stability, growth, health care, and social security seem to be eroding.
I'd like to think that all this is temporary and will be corrected in time...but when?
TBH, I do have self-interest in my question cuz when the US sneezed, we DID catch a cold. And no matter how fiscally sound our small country is, the situation in the US does affect our economy.
FYI, our equivalent of your index funds have been growing at about an average of 25% a year in the last 3 years and 15% a year for the last 5 years...even with the 2008 great recession. But for this year, our index has been flat. Flat, only as a reaction to global concerns, rather than local issues.
So, in your opinion, when will the US economy, and consequently, the global economy, get better?
The best way to predict the future is to create it.
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Sat Aug 27, 2011 1:51 am |
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coaster
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Probably around 2020.
(take that as my forecast and hold me to it)
~Tim~
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Sat Aug 27, 2011 5:59 am |
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Gary Barzel
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It will definitely be a few years before the economy gets better. Coaster- I hope your prediction is wrong  , but as the economy seems to be getting worse with time, I can't say that your figure is out of the ballpark.
Gary Barzel
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Sun Aug 28, 2011 10:39 am |
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coaster
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Gary, maybe I should explain why I think it's that far away:
1) we seem to be in the same kind of environment Japan has been in for decades
2) the current administration is anti-business / anti-capitalism / anti-markets
3) the current administration will be re-elected because the alternative choice(s) will be too far off center
4) the generation(s) responsible for the problems - baby boomers and their children - are still in control
So, look for improvements post-Obama and post-baby-boomers when the baby-boomers' grand-children will be the primary drivers of society and the economy.
~Tim~
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Sun Aug 28, 2011 5:15 pm |
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payment proof
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I'm hoping to see a turn around in the next 3 years or so. But maybe I'm being too optimistic.
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Sun Aug 28, 2011 5:20 pm |
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littleroc02us
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quote:
Originally posted by coaster
Gary, maybe I should explain why I think it's that far away:
1) we seem to be in the same kind of environment Japan has been in for decades
2) the current administration is anti-business / anti-capitalism / anti-markets
3) the current administration will be re-elected because the alternative choice(s) will be too far off center
4) the generation(s) responsible for the problems - baby boomers and their children - are still in control
So, look for improvements post-Obama and post-baby-boomers when the baby-boomers' grand-children will be the primary drivers of society and the economy.
I agree with most of the above, but the one thing I'm in control of is my own economy and that is doing quite well.
Romans 13:8 “Owe no man any thing, but to love one another: for he that loveth another hath fulfilled the law.”
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Tue Aug 30, 2011 3:21 pm |
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coaster
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Understood, though "in control" is relative. Knowing your posting history, I'd say you're considerably more protected against adverse financial events than most. But nothing's 100%, and many things could happen that are outside one's control. Tying that in to the thread topic: when the economy is doing well, the probability of having one of those adverse events is much less than when the economy is doing poorly.
~Tim~
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Tue Aug 30, 2011 4:25 pm |
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globaldoc2001
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In all honesty, I really think it might not be that long. Sooner or later, the US is going to bounce back. Someone somewhere won't allow this to happen.
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Tue Aug 30, 2011 5:03 pm |
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jfurnish
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Sooner than 2020 my guess is 2013.
Tim is giving WAY too much credit to current administration and what they can or can't do. Congress has more control over the economy than the executive branch does.
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Wed Aug 31, 2011 11:50 pm |
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coaster
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Boy, I hope you're right about the date.
Yet, whether or not you're also right about the government (probably are ... I'll concede that point), whether administration or Congress, they're BOTH totally inept and clueless when it comes to the economy. And they're BOTH headed in the wrong direction.
Barring some unforeseen economic stimulus .... like a war, for example, that rescued Roosevelt from the Great Depression? .... I do think it's going to be a long drag-out. Maybe technically "by the numbers" out of the recession but no ball of fire. I'm thinking that maybe the number for "full employment" has moved up from around five percent to nine percent.
~Tim~
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Thu Sep 01, 2011 12:15 am |
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jfurnish
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quote:
Originally posted by coaster
Boy, I hope you're right about the date.
Yet, whether or not you're also right about the government (probably are ... I'll concede that point), whether administration or Congress, they're BOTH totally inept and clueless when it comes to the economy. And they're BOTH headed in the wrong direction.
Barring some unforeseen economic stimulus .... like a war, for example, that rescued Roosevelt from the Great Depression? .... I do think it's going to be a long drag-out. Maybe technically "by the numbers" out of the recession but no ball of fire. I'm thinking that maybe the number for "full employment" has moved up from around five percent to nine percent.
We already had the war now it is time to do what Roosevelt did after the war which was to invest in our infrastructure which put people back to work AND then paid back the war costs.
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Sat Sep 03, 2011 5:32 pm |
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coaster
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quote:
Originally posted by jfurnish
We already had the war.
We still have the war, though most of the citizens aren't paying any attention.
Government spending is inferior as an economic stimulus because it's sucking money OUT of the economy as taxes at the same time it's putting money back IN as wages and profits. There's a whole lot of money being thrown at infrastructure right now and look how much good it's doing.
The whole thing is a heck of a lot more complex than can be explained by either of our viewpoints, and therefore in my opinion isn't going to be fixed by policy or stimulus or any other government action. It's something that's going to have to work itself out through the interplay of all those poorly-understood economic, demographic, and societal processes. Attempts to fix it when it's not understood will just prolong it.
BTW, see Keith Springer's new thread: http://www.money-talk.org/thread19051.html which mentions the Japan parallel.
~Tim~
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Sun Sep 04, 2011 1:35 am |
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payment proof
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quote:
Originally posted by coaster
Government spending is inferior as an economic stimulus because it's sucking money OUT of the economy as taxes at the same time it's putting money back IN as wages and profits. There's a whole lot of money being thrown at infrastructure right now and look how much good it's doing.
I totally agree. Hiring needs to start again in the private sector and consumers need to start spending again, as we have a consumer driven economy. With both of those stagnating basically, there is a long road to recovery ahead.
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Sun Sep 04, 2011 3:00 am |
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coaster
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quote:
Originally posted by jfurnish
now it is time to do what Roosevelt did after the war which was to invest in our infrastructure which put people back to work
Woops. That sailed right past me first time. Roosevelt died before the war ended, so I'm not sure what you meant there. Roosevelt's great infrastructure projects were all before the war.
~Tim~
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Sun Sep 04, 2011 5:03 am |
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globaldoc2001
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I do not want to sound religious here, but God has His plans, and I know He wouldn't forsake America.
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Mon Sep 05, 2011 1:01 am |
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