martyfoley
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Location: Northeast USA
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| Rough Sledding Ahead! |
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Greg, I agree, I think if 9700 doesn't hold there is the possiblility of all the gains of this last cyclical bull market getting wiped out in which case there will be a lot of unhappy holders of equities. I also believe the I-fund will also be negatively effected although not as badly as growth in world markets is a better than here. Still there are a lot of negatives out there especially if company earnings are decelerating. This downleg could last a long time! 
Top Dog for March and May 06!
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Sun Apr 17, 2005 1:35 pm |
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greg
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| F Fund? |
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Sarah or anyone else,
What you think about the F-Fund for the near-term?
Thanks
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Mon Apr 18, 2005 1:55 am |
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SkyPilot
Senior Member
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Hey folks, was out of the game a little last week due to some emergency eye surgery. I did not even look at the market Thursday and Friday, so when I saw what happened, I was really thankful to be mostly out of the equities. I still think we are in for a long, dry summer, and then coming back with most of our gains to be made in the last quarter or so... a lot like last year. The difference this year is that I will not loose so much capital on the front end. The change being access to these discussion boards that have greatly enhanced my understanding. Now, I just have to give up trying to play the wiggles, and discipline myself for to stay with the trends.
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Mon Apr 18, 2005 12:56 pm |
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greg
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| Re: Greg's F fund question |
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[quote="sarah"] Now you don't want to miss out on that dead cat, do you? *giggling* Nothing worse than losing 3% in 3 days on the downside and then losing another 2% on the upside.
quote]
Sarah, Thanks for your comments. I think you are a VERY smart person.
I went pretty much 100% G-fund on March 16th (playing around with 20% onsome days; lost as much as I won). So I was out for the last 2 weeks' drop. Mmmm...G-Fund.
MarketTimer had this market called, didn't he?
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Mon Apr 18, 2005 2:07 pm |
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greg
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quote:
Originally posted by SkyPilot
Hey folks, was out of the game a little last week due to some emergency eye surgery.
Best Wishes, Skypilot !!!
quote:
Originally posted by SkyPilot
I still think we are in for a long, dry summer, and then coming back with most of our gains to be made in the last quarter or so... a lot like last year.
I think so too.
quote:
Originally posted by SkyPilot
The difference this year is that I will not loose so much capital on the front end. The change being access to these discussion boards that have greatly enhanced my understanding. Now, I just have to give up trying to play the wiggles, and discipline myself for to stay with the trends.
It's like you are reading my mind.
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Mon Apr 18, 2005 2:11 pm |
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martyfoley
Senior Member
Cash: $ 66.02
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Location: Northeast USA
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| Catching a falling knife! |
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Hey Sky welcome back, hope your surgery went well. After checking the charts this morning it looks like any rallies will be fake ones meaning they won't have legs as we are heading into the summer doldrums. The problem here is you can try to catch a falling knife and get in but getting back out whole will be pretty tricky. I'm currently in the F-fund and G-fund 50-50 which could do well as I think the equity markets will be unsettled for a while yet. Good Luck! 
Top Dog for March and May 06!
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Mon Apr 18, 2005 2:15 pm |
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martyfoley
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Location: Northeast USA
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| Spring/Summer Doldrums |
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Sarah, my mistake, I meant to say spring/summer doldrums. There has been enough technical damage done now to keep the US markets on the defensive for spring/summer period. Now that doesn't mean there won't be a tradeable rally here and there but getting out in time before the next downer will prove quite challenging as the rallies will be shorted during this period. Of course if we get back above 20ema's or 50 sma's than there may be a much stronger rally but that's gonna take some time and some really good news to get investors back in. The bearish mood now may bring a tradeable rally into focus but like I said getting out will be tricky unless you do it gradually on the way up and get lucky. 
Top Dog for March and May 06!
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Mon Apr 18, 2005 2:57 pm |
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SkyPilot
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Hooo Boy. Looking at the charts with 20/20 is bad enough, try it with post surgery double vision  Just a hint, if you see any sparkly points of light, get to the ophthalmologist right away! Looks like a complete recovery is anticipated, but they tell me a few hours more could have been disastrous...
Actually, I am pretty good, but will burn up a week of our use or loose sick time for solid recovery. By the way, even though we are only cyberpals, the sense of community is real, and very meaningful. Thanks folks!
Question: If we continue to slide, are we starting to move into the area where the F fund might be a more viable play? I suppose if it does, that means the market is in for a substantial decline?
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Mon Apr 18, 2005 6:32 pm |
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martyfoley
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| Anyone's guess what next! |
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The only thing I can say Sky is if the US markets perceive slower earnings from a slowing economy, that would be good for bonds or the F-fund. The chart for the F-fund I believe is AGG, so if you go to bigcharts.com or stockcharts.com and look at the chart you'll see the momentum it has had the past couple of weeks. It may be overbought here somewhat, but if I was interested in buying some I'd average in maybe 5% or 10% a day. A couple weeks ago I didn't realize AGG was the chart that mimicks the F-fund otherwise I would have got in sooner as it was starting to outperform the other funds. Well I hope this helps, but like anything else the F-fund can move down as well as up, it just looks like the better play at this time to me. The I-fund looks like the strongest of the equity funds, so I'll be watching to enter that one when things settle down a bit.
Top Dog for March and May 06!
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Mon Apr 18, 2005 6:52 pm |
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greg
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quote:
Originally posted by sarah
If we continue going down Monday morning, I'll be taking a more defensive posture here.
I hope I'm not being nosey, but did you make a move? 
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Tue Apr 19, 2005 1:27 am |
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greg
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The I-Fund went down 0.988% down just today.
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Tue Apr 19, 2005 1:41 am |
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martyfoley
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| The Jury is Still Out! |
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Dead cat bounce that's what it is! The real test will come tomorrow and the day after. The S&P 500 is now under its 200 day moving average, S-fund is testing it, The I fund well above it and the best performing equity fund at this time. I think we are just going sideways here for a while and basebuilding. Whether the bases will hold is another matter. New housing starts were way off this morning which is bullish for bonds or the F-fund, so I'm staying 50F-50G for now. Have a great day!
Top Dog for March and May 06!
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Tue Apr 19, 2005 3:14 pm |
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Wheels
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Moved everything into the I fund today. The dollar might waffle here for a bit because of today's CPI and the bond surge. However the dollar has shown little ability to get through resistance at about 85 so I think the downside is limited.
Dave
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Wed Apr 20, 2005 3:40 pm |
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martyfoley
Senior Member
Cash: $ 66.02
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Joined: 18 Mar 2005
Location: Northeast USA
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| Could Get Very Ugly Soon! |
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My internet access was unavailable all day until now. Staying with current 50%-G - 50%F allocations at this time. Even tho the dollar is breaking down the I fund is still heading down which is a break with past tradition. Something else is going on here and it really smells bad. I think there is a real possibility that we may have some sort of meltdown here as it doesn't appear that this base will hold. If I am correct and the economy is slowing down here, the F-fund is the place to be. Tomorrow I just may increase my exposure to bonds as I don't have the stomach for equities right now. Good Luck!
Top Dog for March and May 06!
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Wed Apr 20, 2005 7:42 pm |
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Wheels
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Well that backfired. My 50% stake in the I fund today will likely hold up pretty well since the EAFE in U.S.dollars is only down .05%. However tomorrow my 100% stake in the I fund will likely play a little catch up. I can only hope the dollar falls tomorrow to mitigate some of the expected losses.
Dave
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Wed Apr 20, 2005 8:31 pm |
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