martyfoley
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Location: Northeast USA
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| I-Fund vs Dollar |
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No, I don't believe the I-fund moves soley on dollar performance but it does have an effect on it. If you look at a chart of the EFA from Jan1 2005 to mid February (when the dollar rallied) you will see that the I fund did go down during this period and then started to head up, basically going sideways! I agree the fund is stronger than the C and S funds, but when the dollar is strong it does in fact hurt the I-fund on those particular days. My only concern is with interest rates going up it's possible that the dollar may begin a cyclical bull market (it already has a bottom in) within the context of a secular bear market here which would in turn hurt the I fund going out. After all the dollar has been falling now for a long time and may be entitled to some kind of an intermediate term rally. Just food for thought!
Top Dog for March and May 06!
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Tue Apr 12, 2005 4:41 pm |
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SkyPilot
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Cash: $ 100.11
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I kind of look at the I fund in terms of a sailboat, the dollar being the tiller or rudder, and the foriegn markets being the sail. When the two work together we can see dramatic moves either up or down, and other times the two mitigate each other. However, of the two, it seems that the status of the dollar is the dominant factor.
Last edited by SkyPilot on Tue Apr 12, 2005 5:48 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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Tue Apr 12, 2005 5:04 pm |
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martyfoley
Senior Member
Cash: $ 66.02
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Location: Northeast USA
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| Oil is Down Too! |
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Sarah, Light Crude currently down $1.96 to $51.75. This can help grease the rally. Let's hope there is followthru tomorrow! 
Top Dog for March and May 06!
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Tue Apr 12, 2005 7:07 pm |
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greg
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quote:
Originally posted by sarah
Also Marty, if the USD continues its slide into the evening, you will see one of those glorious situations in which the I fund daily return exceeds that of the EFA that closed out at 4pm. 
The I-fund went down 3 cents to 15.58. I moved 20% from G to I right before the deadline when I saw how far it had dropped by noonET. I thought I would have bought in at better price, but I think I'm lucky it went down at all considering the rally.
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Tue Apr 12, 2005 11:11 pm |
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martyfoley
Senior Member
Cash: $ 66.02
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Joined: 18 Mar 2005
Location: Northeast USA
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Going 25%C, 20%F, 55%I today for tomorrow. I believe it makes some sense to go with the F fund as retail sales are being hurt because of high gasoline prices which may also hurt the economy in general. Also the agg chart is looking quite good compared to the others. I'm sticking with the C-fund for now but it better start moving up here soon and get above 1190 otherwise we'll have to assume the bears have control and we could go down lower in the near future. The I fund has been performing the best recently so it should deserve the highest allocation. Good Luck!
Top Dog for March and May 06!
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Wed Apr 13, 2005 3:28 pm |
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martyfoley
Senior Member
Cash: $ 66.02
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Joined: 18 Mar 2005
Location: Northeast USA
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| F-Fund |
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Sarah, currently I'm showing the AGG at 101.65, 20ema @ 101.06, 50sma @ 101.43. It is above both of them. I don't yet feel we are going into a recession but it is apparent to a lot of investors that there is a good chance of a slowing economy in the future due to high energy costs as can be seen by the rally this vehicle is showing currently. As more families spend more and more on energy it will have a detrimental effect on disposable income numbers. I am reading about slowing economies worldwide as energy saps disposable income. There's also the issue of variable rate mortgages sapping more disposable income as the rates climb. So the F-fund just may be a good place to park some $ this summer. Just food for thought!
Top Dog for March and May 06!
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Wed Apr 13, 2005 4:10 pm |
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martyfoley
Senior Member
Cash: $ 66.02
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Joined: 18 Mar 2005
Location: Northeast USA
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| F-Fund (AGG) |
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Sarah I'm showing 101.43 as a 50 simple moving average at stockcharts.com. Could you be watching the exponential moving average? That would be a higher number. The other interesting thing is since the end of March the AGG has actually been outperforming the EFA (I-fund)! If you go to stockcharts, ask for Price Relative to EFA you will see what I mean. I'm not saying the AGG is the better long term investment but short term it has been outperforming everything else. 
Top Dog for March and May 06!
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Wed Apr 13, 2005 4:33 pm |
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martyfoley
Senior Member
Cash: $ 66.02
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Location: Northeast USA
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| AGG & Stagflation |
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Sarah I'm not disputing your numbers, but there were 5 trading days or so at the very end of March where this vehicle really shot up. I don't think you are factoring these in. If you did I think you would have a different result favoring the AGG. Regarding stagflation, I don't think that would become a real problem unless oil went up to about $100 a barrel. I do think that the inflation numbers are understated however. Because of cheap imports I think inflation is held in check somewhat but there are some items that are really going up, energy, healthcare, prescriptions, taxes etc. Although inflation isn't a real threat at this time, it could become a big problem as developing countries such as China gobble up natural resources. $100 dollar oil could happen but not for a few years. Hope I'm wrong about this!
Top Dog for March and May 06!
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Wed Apr 13, 2005 5:04 pm |
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martyfoley
Senior Member
Cash: $ 66.02
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Joined: 18 Mar 2005
Location: Northeast USA
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| AGG (f-Fund) |
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Sarah, Big Charts is showing the 50 SMA at about 101.82, stockcharts is at 101.24, so there is a disparity. Regarding the I fund today, I think its poor performance may have been due to the oil stocks in its holdings. The XOI peaked the first week of March and the I fund did the same. Could there be a correlation? The financials also peaked then too I believe. If the oils tank further how do you think this will effect the I fund as there seems to be some similarities in the charts. 
Top Dog for March and May 06!
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Wed Apr 13, 2005 8:14 pm |
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martyfoley
Senior Member
Cash: $ 66.02
Posts: 404
Joined: 18 Mar 2005
Location: Northeast USA
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It would be nice to have more fund choices for the TSP. I would like to see sector type funds ie; gold, financial, energy, biotech etc. as well as emerging individual countries, ie; China, Japan, Canaada etc. but I know that is too much to ask for. I guess we'll just have to see what they set up.
Today looks like its shaping up to be an up day for the dollar and crude which makes me wonder. If US markets as well as the I Fund could not rally on down days for crude what will happen when crude moves back up?! The dollar does not want to move down in any meaningful way soooo the I-fund may lag here. I'm starting to like the F-fund more and more here especially if the economy is perceived to be weakening. You certainly can't argue with the AGG chart! I just may lighten up on stocks and get more bonds if we cannot stage a good rally this morning in the C,S, and I. There just isn't any buying interest in these funds at the moment except for the F fund. S&P has got to get back above 1192 or so with strength here to draw in long termers. With crude possibly heading back up and earnings reports not coming in as well as hoped we could have a rough time here. Staying very cautious right now. 
Top Dog for March and May 06!
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Thu Apr 14, 2005 1:31 pm |
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martyfoley
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Cash: $ 66.02
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Location: Northeast USA
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| Dow testing major support! |
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I could be wrong and the markets may scoot up! But it's possible the opposite could happen as favorable seasonality ends. Dow's major support is being tested at 10360, if that breaks, it will drag down the C and S funds for sure. Then we are talking a ride down to 9700. I'm not willing to take that chance. The I fund will struggle here with the dollar acting like it is. I need more evidence that the dollar will infact go down, I don't see it yet and as a matter of fact the base keeps building in a favorable way. The dollar should resume it's downtrend, but until it does the I fund will be held back. That leaves the F-fund which has the better, stronger, chart. Why is it doing well here? I think there is a perception developing that the economy is slowing, and as earnings reports come out they probably won't be as good as expected. Bad for the US markets as they are looking for accelerating earnings. So if I'm right we could sell off here. If we were going to rally I think it would have happened by now. My short term indicators are oversold, but that doesn't mean they can't get even more oversold should the Dow break support. The long termers just are not stepping up to the plate in a meaningful way and that's reality. Rather be safe than sorry at this point. The F-fund is still looking good and is the strongest chart right now so I have to go with it!
Top Dog for March and May 06!
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Thu Apr 14, 2005 3:59 pm |
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martyfoley
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Cash: $ 66.02
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Location: Northeast USA
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| Staying the same. |
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Staying the same here today 50%G, 50%F. I sense a slowdown coming, the markets sense the same into the future, so I'm going to stick with the F fund for now as appears to be outperforming at this time. There will come a time to get back into stocks but I think it isn't at this time with the summer doldrums coming. A catalyst is needed, earnings are not doing it, oil needs to come down more. Lower stock prices could trigger a bounce but I don't think it will have legs unless something fundamentally good happens to this economy. Good Luck!
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Fri Apr 15, 2005 3:59 pm |
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greg
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quote:
Originally posted by sarah
I'd like to see how today finishes....the Dow has been up in 7 of the past 8 April 15ths....
The S&P fell thru 1150 (off 18 points) today. It hasn't at that level since the first of November 2004. Wow, all of the last 6 months gains have been lost for the hold-and-hopers.
Back in Nov, S&P went from 1100 to 1150 in less than a week. It could fell to 1100 by the end of next week. 
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Fri Apr 15, 2005 8:24 pm |
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martyfoley
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Cash: $ 66.02
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Joined: 18 Mar 2005
Location: Northeast USA
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| What a day! |
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Well, as mentioned a while back, Dow 9700 is now a distinct possibility as major support areas have been broken on the indexes. When they yell fire its a really bad place to be. What now? I think we're gonna be heading down lower with fake rallies as there really isn't a good reason to buy especially if the economy is in fact slowing down. We'll have to see if 9700 holds and then some sort of double bottom W formation to shake everybody out. My real concern is whether the secular bear market has resumed again after this just past cyclical bull market. If 9700 doesn't hold then there is the real possibility that the secular bear will take hold. Secular bear markets can last 15-20 years with cyclical bull markets mixed in so let's hope 9700 holds. If the economy is slowing down the F-fund looks like the best bet at this time. After this weeks selloff the Fed may think twice about continuing to raise rates which may help to put a bottom in for the stock market but I think we still need more selling and basing action before confidence can be attained for a sustained rally.
Top Dog for March and May 06!
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Fri Apr 15, 2005 11:32 pm |
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greg
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| Re: What a day! |
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quote:
Originally posted by martyfoley
Well, as mentioned a while back, Dow 9700 is now a distinct possibility as major support areas have been broken on the indexes. When they yell fire its a really bad place to be. What now? I think we're gonna
Yeah, the Dow closed today at 10087, dropping 374 points this week alone. If next week is like this week, it'll be at 9713 on this Friday evening (Apr 22nd).  
It looks like there may be an additional support at 9000. 
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Sat Apr 16, 2005 12:11 am |
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