martyfoley
Senior Member
Cash: $ 66.02
Posts: 404
Joined: 18 Mar 2005
Location: Northeast USA
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| Conservative (nearing retirement) TSP Allocations. |
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Good morning everyone. Going 25%S, 25%C, 50%G today for tomorrow. Crude coming back down which may spark a rally for a while. Will have to monitor this very closely. US Markets are short term oversold and we should get some sort of bounce. I'm also watching 20 day exponential moving averages on the three funds. The C & S are currently above them. If they can close above them today, more investors will be attracted to the two indexes. I-fund is another story, although as previously mentioned, the I fund has been the strongest, I'm still unsure about the US dollar collapsing here. It is up today and may challenge it's 200 day moving average again, and should it pop thru with momentum, it could really hurt the I-fund. Good Luck!
Top Dog for March and May 06!
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Wed Apr 06, 2005 3:14 pm |
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Rolo
Yo' Daddy
Cash: $ 309.70
Posts: 1551
Joined: 13 Mar 2005
Location: Colorado/Florida
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The kvestion is: Will C break its prior high or meet insurmountable resistance?
"Expect me when you see me."
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Thu Apr 07, 2005 1:16 am |
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Rolo
Yo' Daddy
Cash: $ 309.70
Posts: 1551
Joined: 13 Mar 2005
Location: Colorado/Florida
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Ah, naw..oops..I meant March 7th's high (1225?)...a short-term kvestion.
...without going down first.
"Expect me when you see me."
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Thu Apr 07, 2005 3:29 am |
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Wheels
Preferred Member
Cash: $ 21.52
Posts: 106
Joined: 17 Mar 2005
Location: Nashua NH
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Hey Sarah, Where are you tracking the dollar this early? I use barchart but they don't show quotes until after the equity markets open.
Thanks,
Dave
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Thu Apr 07, 2005 1:34 pm |
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martyfoley
Senior Member
Cash: $ 66.02
Posts: 404
Joined: 18 Mar 2005
Location: Northeast USA
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I use futuresource.com to track commodities as well as currencies all day! Hope this helps!
Top Dog for March and May 06!
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Thu Apr 07, 2005 1:39 pm |
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Wheels
Preferred Member
Cash: $ 21.52
Posts: 106
Joined: 17 Mar 2005
Location: Nashua NH
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Yes it does. Thanks.
Dave
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Thu Apr 07, 2005 1:57 pm |
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martyfoley
Senior Member
Cash: $ 66.02
Posts: 404
Joined: 18 Mar 2005
Location: Northeast USA
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| I-Fund |
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Symbol EFA at stockcharts.com just flashed a buy signal rising above it's 20 day exponential moving average at 160.46 currently at 160.62. I will be entering the I fund today, also the $ appears to have put in a short term top for now. I will enter my allocations a little later. Good Luck!
Top Dog for March and May 06!
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Thu Apr 07, 2005 2:02 pm |
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Wheels
Preferred Member
Cash: $ 21.52
Posts: 106
Joined: 17 Mar 2005
Location: Nashua NH
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This from CNBC this morning.
"The dollar eased against the yen and the euro on Thursday, but traders said it would soon return to an upward path on expectations the Federal Reserve will keep raising interest rates, possibly at a faster pace."
So the question is, Do these "traders" know what the hell they are talking about? If so, would it be wise to bail on the I fund for a few days?
Dave
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Thu Apr 07, 2005 2:03 pm |
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Wheels
Preferred Member
Cash: $ 21.52
Posts: 106
Joined: 17 Mar 2005
Location: Nashua NH
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Marty, It looks like we were posting at about the same time so you clearly weren't answering my question, however it's also clear that your answer is not to bail on the I right now. I agree with you that the dollar is facing strong resistance at 85 but then I read things like the quote above and it makes me wonder.
Dave
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Thu Apr 07, 2005 2:07 pm |
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martyfoley
Senior Member
Cash: $ 66.02
Posts: 404
Joined: 18 Mar 2005
Location: Northeast USA
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| I-Fund |
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Dave, I believe the higher interest rates, are already factored in as the markets always look ahead 3-6 months. My concern (and still is) is whether the $ will move convincingly above it's 200day moving average. At this time it appears the $ is being shorted (sold) above 85.00 as it nears its 200 day at about 85.40 or so. I agree with Sarah about the long term strength of the I fund which has been excellent. On this run the $ got to 85.12 and got kicked back down. Currently it's at 84.40 as I write, and with a report like that on CNBC the dollar should be up now. I don't see it happening so maybe we are at a short term top, of course we'll have to watch to see how much momentum it has on the way back down but that's food for thought a little later should we infact go back down. I think the risk is now being out of the I fund with stiiff resistance just above the dollar now. Again if the $ rallies strongly thru the 200 day ma all bets are off! I'll be exiting quickly. Good Luck!
Top Dog for March and May 06!
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Thu Apr 07, 2005 2:33 pm |
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martyfoley
Senior Member
Cash: $ 66.02
Posts: 404
Joined: 18 Mar 2005
Location: Northeast USA
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| Comments on today's allocations. |
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I-fund has been the better performer, therefore I'm allocating a higher percentage to it. Going 25%C, 25%S, 50%I. Normally I do not get over 75% invested in equites unless there is a really good reason to. Currently I believe the $ is forming a short term top at resistance and appears overbought according to its indicators, short term. Depending on its future downward momentum (breaking supports etc.) the I fund should act accordingly in an upward bias until it too gets overbought. Also, today it is moving above its 20 day exponential moving average, usually a very good sign of strength. Good Luck!
Top Dog for March and May 06!
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Thu Apr 07, 2005 3:23 pm |
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Wheels
Preferred Member
Cash: $ 21.52
Posts: 106
Joined: 17 Mar 2005
Location: Nashua NH
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So one camp says the dollar will be down by the end of the year primarily because our account deficits are continually worsening. The other camp says our interest rates are rising and theirs aren't so the dollar will likely rise by years end. My position is I'll worry about the end of the year in October or November. I want to try to gage the dollar for the next three weeks so I can make some money right now.
Dave
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Thu Apr 07, 2005 7:29 pm |
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Wheels
Preferred Member
Cash: $ 21.52
Posts: 106
Joined: 17 Mar 2005
Location: Nashua NH
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I understood which camp you were in. I notice you've been in the I fund throughout. Let's say we agree that the dollar will be lower by year's end, and the I fund will do well the second half of the year. Would you consider getting out for a period as short as a few weeks if you thought the dollar had bottomed and was heading back up within it's range (as has happened a few times in recent months) or are you really only looking at the long term?
Dave
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Thu Apr 07, 2005 7:52 pm |
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Wheels
Preferred Member
Cash: $ 21.52
Posts: 106
Joined: 17 Mar 2005
Location: Nashua NH
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Speaking of the dollar, what happened to change it's direction today? Very volatile day for the $.
Dave
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Thu Apr 07, 2005 7:53 pm |
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martyfoley
Senior Member
Cash: $ 66.02
Posts: 404
Joined: 18 Mar 2005
Location: Northeast USA
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| $/I-Fund |
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I'm looking at it this way. On a day when the dollar is up the I-fund is up. What gives? My guess is the I-fund (EFA) investors feel the dollar has run its course short term and is overbought short term and they are expecting it to form a top now and head back down. I hope they are right so us folks in the I-fund will do well. My indicators are showing the dollar overbought and I-fund oversold and starting to head up. It is a good sign for I-fund investors to see the EFA up today even tho the $ is up now. I'm still going to watch closely to see how this develops. The dollar should form a top here.
Top Dog for March and May 06!
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Thu Apr 07, 2005 8:04 pm |
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