martyfoley
Senior Member
Cash: $ 66.02
Posts: 404
Joined: 18 Mar 2005
Location: Northeast USA
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| Conservative (nearing retirement) TSP Chat |
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100% to G today. I'm sorry but I think we are reaching the point where if the Dow breaks 10365 there is a real chance we could go down to 9700. I know it sounds far fetched but so wasn't $58.00 oil even when OPEC decides to increase output. The dollar is up again today approaching some resistance at it's 200 day moving average. I think it just may break thru, this would bring in more buyers (speculators) driving it even higher. Also favorable seasonality is ending for our stock markets. Everything seems to be converging into a serious correction here, so back to the G fund for now.
Top Dog for March and May 06!
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Mon Apr 04, 2005 2:16 pm |
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Wheels
Preferred Member
Cash: $ 21.52
Posts: 106
Joined: 17 Mar 2005
Location: Nashua NH
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Well, once again I appear to have chosen the wrong day to jump on board. Especially in the I fund. I'll give it another day or two to start heading up and if not, I too will return to the G licking some more wounds. Very difficult year for me so far.
Dave
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Mon Apr 04, 2005 3:28 pm |
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dmanos
Member
Cash: $ 4.60
Posts: 23
Joined: 30 Mar 2005
Location: Texas
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Pulling out of the I fund for now. Still leaving a little bit in the S fund as it hasn't done too bad lately.
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Mon Apr 04, 2005 3:35 pm |
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dmanos
Member
Cash: $ 4.60
Posts: 23
Joined: 30 Mar 2005
Location: Texas
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You are alot braver than I Sarah. Of course, I am just starting to become active in this arena.
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Mon Apr 04, 2005 6:29 pm |
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Wheels
Preferred Member
Cash: $ 21.52
Posts: 106
Joined: 17 Mar 2005
Location: Nashua NH
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Well that was a pretty nice recovery. Plus, even though the dollar was higher and hurt me in the I fund, it closed off it's high for the day so maybe resistance is going to hold. Overall pretty pleased with the day.
Dave
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Mon Apr 04, 2005 9:20 pm |
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ckb21401
Contributing Member
Cash: $ 5.44
Posts: 27
Joined: 02 Apr 2005
Location: Maryland
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| Indexes to watch |
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I am just starting to track my funds intraday. Where are people looking to watch the indexes during the trading day? Thanks.
Craig
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Mon Apr 04, 2005 9:24 pm |
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SkyPilot
Senior Member
Cash: $ 100.11
Posts: 492
Joined: 13 Mar 2005
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I use this link
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^gspc+^dwcpf+efa+agg&d=t
The page will show you indexes related to C S I and F in that order
However, the I fund is tricky, so you will want to also follow the USD as well, as fair value calculation adjustments may impact the closing number, sometimes by quite a lot.
This link shows the strength of the Euro to the dollar
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=EURUSD=X&t=1d
Last edited by SkyPilot on Mon Apr 04, 2005 10:25 pm; edited 3 times in total |
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Mon Apr 04, 2005 10:21 pm |
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martyfoley
Senior Member
Cash: $ 66.02
Posts: 404
Joined: 18 Mar 2005
Location: Northeast USA
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| Conservative (nearing retirement) TSP Allocations |
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Staying 100% G for now. Before I would get enthused about re-entering the equity funds I would need to see prices rise back above 50 day moving averages. I still think there is risk out there. We may have a couple of up days here as oil backs off a bit, but I feel any rally will be shorted quickly.
So my trigger points are as follows, you can see these charts at stockcharts.com.
A close above these 50 day moving averages would be a buy.
$INDU 10,653.80
$SPX (C) 1192.62
$SML (S) 325.02
$EFA (I) 160.48
Good Luck!
Top Dog for March and May 06!
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Tue Apr 05, 2005 1:27 pm |
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martyfoley
Senior Member
Cash: $ 66.02
Posts: 404
Joined: 18 Mar 2005
Location: Northeast USA
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| Food for Thought |
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During our last minor correction in January 05, Crude oil was in the $42.50-$50.00 range. During this minor(?) correction Crude is in the $52.50-$58.00 range. Gasoline is expected to go to $2.50-$3.00 this driving season. There is the possiblilitiy that crude could back down to test $52.50 a barrel shortly but then head back up. Should crude go back down to $52.50 it would be bullish for the equity markets for maybe a week, possibly two weeks. You might make a few $ on the rise but when crude turns back up again the markets will fall fast and then you would be trying to get out in a falling market, never a good thing to do thereby wiping out some of your profit. Is it worth it? Any comments?
Top Dog for March and May 06!
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Tue Apr 05, 2005 4:29 pm |
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martyfoley
Senior Member
Cash: $ 66.02
Posts: 404
Joined: 18 Mar 2005
Location: Northeast USA
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| ??? |
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Oil down $1.06 presently, Dow only up 38 points. What gives? From what I am reading, long term investors are not coming to the plate only short term investors. Could be trouble ahead if a pullback in oil isn't attracting some serious buying. Another problem, no volume. Where are the buyers?
Top Dog for March and May 06!
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Tue Apr 05, 2005 7:20 pm |
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dmanos
Member
Cash: $ 4.60
Posts: 23
Joined: 30 Mar 2005
Location: Texas
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Dow is now up 46. Man what a roller coaster ride this is turning into!!
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Tue Apr 05, 2005 7:40 pm |
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martyfoley
Senior Member
Cash: $ 66.02
Posts: 404
Joined: 18 Mar 2005
Location: Northeast USA
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| I-Fund Comments |
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Sarah, I have to agree with you regarding the I-Fund. Comparing the charts and their moving averages, 20EMA and 50SMA The I Fund has been outperforming the C and S. The dollar should start going down as the US fundamentals are bad. The problem is I don't see it happening yet, I think the jury is still out and it may make another stab to get thru the 200 day ma. Nothing is definite right now as far as the the buck is concerned as it is stuck in a trading range about 83.5-85.00 until there is a break either way it will be a waiting game. Meanwhile the I fund will be building it's base for a while. We'll just have to be patient here.
Top Dog for March and May 06!
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Tue Apr 05, 2005 7:59 pm |
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greg
Senior Member
Cash: $ 127.49
Posts: 609
Joined: 23 Mar 2005
Location: One Monkey Don't Stop No Show
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| Getting Out on Thursday |
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I am currently 50% in stocks - 20%I 20%C 10%S.
I feel uncomfortable about all the world leaders
(including U.S. Pres, Senate and House speaker)
all in one small place with 2 million people (sleeping in tents).
I plan to go 100%G at close of Thursday and then
possibly back in COB Monday.
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Wed Apr 06, 2005 3:28 am |
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greg
Senior Member
Cash: $ 127.49
Posts: 609
Joined: 23 Mar 2005
Location: One Monkey Don't Stop No Show
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Looking at the data under the avatars, it
appears they are paying us $0.20 for each
time we post here.
Is there a place online that we can redeem these
(like Amazon) or do they send us a check in the mail
at the end of the quarter?
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Wed Apr 06, 2005 3:32 am |
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SkyPilot
Senior Member
Cash: $ 100.11
Posts: 492
Joined: 13 Mar 2005
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Good Morning all! If the market is up at noon, I think I will retreat into the G again for Thursday, as I don't think the market can stand more than a couple positive days in a row right now. I may also get the penny in G, if it doesn't pay off tonight.
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Wed Apr 06, 2005 1:37 pm |
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