Traders-Live
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| Trading EUR/USD |
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EUR/USD
Weekly Trend direction: Bullish
Weekly trend reversal level: 1.2480
Key G7 support levels: 1.2570, 1.2520, 1.2480/2500
Counter-trend and scalping opportunities:
Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.
Today's trade suggestion:
Beaten down from the weekly trend-line as expected, but not “out” Allow for a bit more work under the trendline, and perhaps even a pull-back to 1.2300-1.2400. That having been said, we need to stay above the weekly reversal level at 1.2480 this week for the strong bullish momentum to continue, and we’ll look to buy into dips
whilst that is the case. Good support levels lie at 1.2570, 1.2520 and 1.2480/2500. Watch and wait for a clear G7 entry signal before buying the euro for a rally back to 1.2700. I suspect that the euro won’t be in a rush this week, so be patient – there will be plenty of time to pick your moment!
Summary: Patiently wait for dips down to support levels before buying the euro after a clear G7 entry signal.
Target 1.2600.
Traders-Live
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Mon Jul 12, 2010 8:46 am |
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Traders-Live
Contributing Member
Cash: $ 9.10
Posts: 44
Joined: 06 Jul 2010
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| EUR/USD Analysis |
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EUR/USD
Weekly Trend direction: Bullish
Weekly trend reversal level: 1.2520
Key G7 support levels: 1.2820, 1.2760, 1.2700/20
Counter-trend and scalping opportunities:
Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.
Today's trade suggestion:
Capped at 1.3000, the euro is pausing a little before the next move higher to 1.3120. Weekly momentum remains bullish and we’ll continue to look to buy dips this week, whilst above the weekly reversal level at 1.2520. Notice that the weekly downward trend line has been conclusively broken, and this should also add fuel to a further move higher. Supports lie at 1.2820, 1.2760 and then around the 1.2700 mark. We must allow for a retest of the weekly trend-line from the top side – now acting as support, and this means we may experience a dip as low as 1.2700-1.2660. Targets for long trades are the big psychological barrier at 1.3000 and then onwards and upwards to 1.3120.
Summary: Buy dips to support levels listed above after a clear G7 entry signal, allowing for a retracement as far as 1.2660-1.2700. First target 1.3000 and then 1.3120.
Traders-Live
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Mon Jul 19, 2010 6:34 am |
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C9Consulting
Full Member
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Are these moves for day trading only in Forex? I believe that regardless of what happens in recent months, Euro will end up on the dollar. May take months or years. But I think it'll work out that way.
[Edit]Sorry I read your analysis wrong. Why wouldn't you trade Euro now, instead of waiting for the lower target price?
Cloud 9 Financial
Company Blog
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Mon Jul 19, 2010 10:27 pm |
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Traders-Live
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| Two Trading “Best Practices” You Can NOT Afford To Neglect |
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I managed to get this article from Brian at Inside Out Trading and I think they make a lot of sense...
Brian here with 2 extremely critical “Best Practices” for traders that you really must not neglect, or your trading will suffer.
In my Quality Engineering days, we always sought to establish Best Practices wherever possible because it had a measurable effect on the bottom line, plus numerous other aspects of the business.
Now in trading there are Best Practices which will definitely benefit you and if you neglect them, your performance and your results are almost certain to suffer.
The First Best Practice
Highly successful businesses don’t just ‘happen’ by accident or by themselves.
…and you do want a highly successful trading business, right?
I mean you’re not in this for mediocrity or just something to do, are you?
No, you want a trading business that is consistent and most of all RELIABLE.
You want the security of knowing that your trading business can be counted on to provide both right now and for the future.
Again, reliable businesses don’t just happen, but the reason the so many traders never get anywhere, let alone taking it to that level where it IS reliable is this:
- they make the mistake of thinking that if they can just get making some money, then somehow everything will fall into place.
Where things go wrong
So many traders wind up too busy doing the thing of the business to ever take it to that next level, and just stay in kind of that ’scrambling to make money this month’ mode.
This is how businesses that ‘just survive’ get built and the owners usually do NOT enjoy the lifestyle that they want.
They find that they are working more hours than they’d like, and
They are not making nearly as much money as they’d like, and
They do NOT have the security in their business that they want.
The other (and more common) result is that the business struggles and dies, usually in a matter of months, simply because of the resources that get wasted instead of contributing to the bottom line.
So the solution is to implement the first Best Practice: taking time to work “on the business”, not just “in it”.
This is most crucial AT THE VERY BEGINNING of the venture with the most important business asset - your Business Plan.
Once that is in place, then taking time periodically to again work “on the business” and not just in it, is so vital to making it what you really want.
The Second Best Practice
Because you are the decision-maker and center of your trading business, how well you perform has a direct impact on how good your results are, so…
You need to live by the second Best Practice: making the time to take care of yourself - this means several things.
1. Take the time to exercise. Taking a walk or jogging or anything that gets you away from ‘work’ and does your body good will also benefit you in your trading.
2. Take time to detach and get some R & R. It is vital to efficient and effective trading for you to take time completely away from trading. A full 24-hour break, meaning completely stepping away from it, will do you worlds of good.
3. Get enough sleep - how can you expect to trade at your best if you are shorting yourself necessary sleep? You can’t, so make sure you get enough to feel rested.
4. Mind what you eat. Certain foods will agree with you and others might taste good, but don’t serve you well. On trading days, eat what helps you feel good and sharp.
Summing it up - and more…
Your trading is your business and it directly depends on you the trader.
Put these Best Practices into place and make them practices.
Remember to work “on your business”, take care of yourself, and make sure that you have a Business Plan.
For more on Treating Your Trading As a Business,
Enjoy!
Cheers
Brian
“The Trading Turnaround Coach”
P.S. Neglecting these Best Practices causes many traders to suffer un-necessarily.
Don’t let it happen to you! Watch the video and / or take the quiz and make your trading business the RELIABLE one you want it to be!
This article and two free accompanying video’s are available on my blog page on my site.
Traders-Live
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Tue Jul 20, 2010 9:25 am |
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Traders-Live
Contributing Member
Cash: $ 9.10
Posts: 44
Joined: 06 Jul 2010
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| EUR/USD Analysis |
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EUR/USD
Weekly Trend direction: Bullish
Weekly trend reversal level: 1.2520
Key G7 support levels: 1.2820, 1.2760, 1.2700/20
Counter-trend and scalping opportunities:
Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.
Today's trade suggestion:
Capped at 1.3000, the euro is pausing a little before the next move higher to 1.3120. Weekly momentum remains bullish and we’ll continue to look to buy dips this week, whilst above the weekly reversal level at 1.2520. Notice that the weekly downward trend line has been conclusively broken, and this should also add fuel to a further move higher. Supports lie at 1.2820, 1.2760 and then around the 1.2700 mark. We must allow for a retest of the weekly trend-line from the top side – now acting as support, and this means we may experience a dip as low as 1.2700-1.2660. Targets for long trades are the big psychological barrier at 1.3000 and then onwards and upwards to 1.3120.
Update: Moving down close to 1.2840 – the 38% retracement level – but no real signs of reversal just yet. We’ll allow for a further dip to the support levels listed above, which will take us down to the raft of technical supports below us. Be patient!
Summary: Buy dips to support levels listed above after a clear G7 entry signal, allowing for a retracement as far
as 1.2660-1.2700. First target 1.3000 and then 1.3120.
Traders-Live
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Wed Jul 21, 2010 6:06 am |
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Traders-Live
Contributing Member
Cash: $ 9.10
Posts: 44
Joined: 06 Jul 2010
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| Sad Facts |
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The sad fact is that most traders fail to make money, or even survive the first few months of trading due to two factors:
1. A poor trading system.
2. Poor money management
We can provide the first one for you – that’s the easy part! However, the second part is even more important and I want to show you what you can achieve if you do things the right way and if you follow a systematic money management approach.
I have prepared some Excel spreadsheets to show you how you can convert your small trading account into a substantial sum of money if you have a profitable trading system or profitable signals and if you know the three Keys to making money in Forex trading. But before we go through the spreadsheets, let’s briefly cover the three Keys to making money in trading Forex.
Key number 1: Managing risk per trade
Key number 2: Managing risk per account
Key number 3: Compounding profits
Ok, so let’s go through these keys one at a time. Let’s say you were able to get your hands on a profitable trading system or someone was willing to send you profitable trade alerts.
Would this mean that you would automatically make money trading your account?
No way!
The problem is that, as hard as it is to learn how to trade the market, it is even harder for most people to manage their account. This is mainly due to inexperience and wrong, emotional decisions. I can’t help with the emotional side (although there are some excellent books on the psychology of trading at available, but what I can help you with is gaining experience in converting a winning trade system or signals into money in the bank.
It’s all about money management.
Key number 1: Managing risk per trade
Trading involves risk. Every trade we take has a chance of being a winner and a chance of being a loser. There is simply nothing that will ever change that…
No-one knows where the market will go next with certainty.
What we can do is to develop systems which give us an edge of better than 50:50, and the systems we use win about 65-70% of the time. The other 30-35% of the time the trades are losers. This does not make the losing trades bad trades, but it simply means that the trades fell into the “good, but losing” group.
When a trade goes against us, the best thing to do is to close the trade for a relatively small loss and to wait for the next opportunity.
Many novice traders tend to hold onto losing trades, or even add to losing positions. This has a terrible effect on your account equity, risk of losing more and your emotional well being. Anyway, I don’t want to dwell on this subject, but I must stress that if you follow a trading system or signal, follow it precisely. Do not risk more than the 30-50 pip stop loss employed and do not add to losing trades.
More about that later…
Part Two will be posted here on Tuesday next week...
This is part 1 of a 3 part series. If you would like this e-book sent to you directly, simply opt in on the traders-live site and you will receive this, along with another report or two and a complete video series.
Cheers for now,
Chris.
Traders-Live
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Thu Jul 22, 2010 9:51 am |
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Traders-Live
Contributing Member
Cash: $ 9.10
Posts: 44
Joined: 06 Jul 2010
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| RE: EUR/USD Analysis |
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After a great trading week, I'm going to take the
day off and focus on setting up the desk-top alerts
properly.
There will be no report today, and I'll resume on
Monday for the new week ahead.
It's often good to take Friday off when trading
currencies - Friday's are much like the last 5
minutes of the hour which can have big swings
and set the direction for the next hour.
See you next week and have a safe weekend!
Traders-Live
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Fri Jul 23, 2010 7:35 am |
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Adria.John
Preferred Member
Cash: $ 32.60
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Joined: 20 Apr 2010
Location: UK
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Hello,
The Dollar fell against most majors after Federal Reserve Bernanke said optimistic things about the economic recovering, which led the investors to be more risky and buy higher yielding assets like the stocks and the commodities. Also the Unemployment Claims came out worse than expected at 464k vs. 449k forecast, supporting a weaker Dollar.
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Sat Jul 24, 2010 7:12 am |
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Traders-Live
Contributing Member
Cash: $ 9.10
Posts: 44
Joined: 06 Jul 2010
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| The Sad Facts - continued |
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There is no currency analysis today so I thought we may as well continue our post from last week Thursday...
Key number 2: Managing risk per account
Forex brokers will offer you 100:1 and even 200:1 leverage, promising that these offer opportunities to easy and quick riches.
Don’t believe it for one minute!
When you leverage your account, you are actually borrowing money from the broker with the hope that your trading will make you money on the borrowed funds. It’s the same as taking a loan from the bank and “gambling” it in your trading account. A little leverage is OK – it makes sense to make money using other peoples funds, but too much will lead you to disaster quicker than you can blink.
Here it is: As a rule of thumb, I recommend no more than 10:1 leverage on your trades.
That means for every $10,000 in your mini account, you should trade no more than 10 mini lots, or for every $100,000 in your full trading account, you should trade no more than 10 full (100k) lots.
But can you make money at this leverage?
Of course!
I will show you later how this modest leverage can be used to convert your account safely into many multiples of the initial balance, if traded wisely.
Key number 3: Compounding profits
The power of compounding is simply amazing.
Compounding means that you re-invest some or all of each months profits back into your trading account and you use the profits to generate more returns. The only way I can show you the power of this process is in real numbers, and I intend to do just that right now.
Trading plan for our signals to explode the profits in your account!
First of all, let’s look realistically at what you can expect to achieve each month, based on our current achievements at www (dot) thetradersclub (dot) com and our previous experience as well.
The average pips-per-month is roughly 300, with some months over 500. We need to know what to expect before we can make any projections going forward. Please remember though, that past performance is no guarantee of future returns, and the risk disclaimer on our site should be read and understood before proceeding.
Now we know the expected returns in pips, we know that the leverage should not be more than 10:1 on your account, and we know that the trading system works and should be followed as it generates signals (no moving stops or adding to losing trades!)
What will this generate on our account? The spreadsheet below gives us Scenario 1 – Conservative returns of 200 pips per month and no drawdown months, at only 5:1 leverage (instead of 10:1). Take a look…
Scenario 1. Conservative returns, no drawdown months
Monthly pips 200
Leverage 5
month # starting balance pips leverage pos size mini lots profit $ profit% end bal sub final
1 10000 200 5 50000 5 1000 10.0 11000 100 10900
2 10900 200 5 54500 5 1000 9.2 11900 100 11800
3 11800 200 5 59000 6 1200 10.2 13000 100 12900
4 12900 200 5 64500 6 1200 9.3 14100 100 14000
5 14000 200 5 70000 7 1400 10.0 15400 100 15300
6 15300 200 5 76500 8 1600 10.5 16900 100 16800
7 16800 200 5 84000 8 1600 9.5 18400 100 18300
8 18300 200 5 91500 9 1800 9.8 20100 100 20000
9 20000 200 5 100000 10 2000 10.0 22000 100 21900
10 21900 200 5 109500 11 2200 10.0 24100 100 24000
11 24000 200 5 120000 12 2400 10.0 26400 100 26300
12 26300 200 5 131500 13 2800 9.7 31600 100 31500
14 31500 200 5 157500 16 3200 10.2 34700 100 34600
15 34600 200 5 173000 17 3400 9.8 38000 100 37900
16 37900 200 5 189500 19 3800 10.0 41700 100 41600
17 41600 200 5 208000 21 4200 10.1 45800 100 45700
18 45700 200 5 228500 23 4600 10.1 50300 100 50200
19 50200 200 5 251000 25 5000 10.0 55200 100 55100
20 55100 200 5 275500 28 5600 10.2 60700 100 60600
21 60600 200 5 303000 30 6000 9.9 66600 100 66500
22 66500 200 5 332500 33 6600 9.9 73100 100 73000
23 73000 200 5 365000 37 7400 10.1 80400 100 80300
24 80300 200 5 401500 40 8000 10.0 88300 100 88200
To be continued ...
Traders-Live
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Tue Jul 27, 2010 6:46 am |
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Traders-Live
Contributing Member
Cash: $ 9.10
Posts: 44
Joined: 06 Jul 2010
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| EUR/USD Analysis |
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Another analysis will be posted tomorrow
Traders-Live
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Tue Jul 27, 2010 6:48 am |
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Traders-Live
Contributing Member
Cash: $ 9.10
Posts: 44
Joined: 06 Jul 2010
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| EUR/USD Analysis |
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EUR/USD
Weekly Trend direction: Bullish
Weekly trend reversal level: 1.2732
Key G7 support levels: 1.2900, 1.2850, 1.2780/2800, 1.2720
Counter-trend and scalping opportunities: 1.2980 – 1.3050
Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.
Today's trade suggestion:
Little has changed since last week, as the Euro has been in a broad sideways range for much of the last week. Support levels are listed above and we’ll continue to
look to buy the Euro into dips, with an unchanged strategy. There is a word of caution: It is very possible that we’ll retrace and correct back to the weekly
downward trend line, which now acts as a support. Today, this lies at roughly 1.2520, which is below the weekly reversal level. As bullish momentum has slowed
somewhat and the danger of a consolidation/correction is increasing, we’ll allow for some careful trend and counter-trend trading if the opportunity arises. Watch
for potential topping at 1.2980/1.3000
Update: Very little change, as the euro popped its head up briefly above 1.3000, and then back to the range. We’ll have to wait and see if we get another rally from
here. The strategy remains unchanged, apart from small adjustments to the support levels above. Probably best to focus on trading in the direction of the bullish
trend today.
Summary: Buy dips to support levels listed above after a clear G7 entry signal, allowing for a retracement as far as 1.2630. First target 1.3000 and then 1.3120.
EUR/USD Hourly chart:
Traders-Live
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Wed Jul 28, 2010 7:01 am |
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Adria.John
Preferred Member
Cash: $ 32.60
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Joined: 20 Apr 2010
Location: UK
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Overall, EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.2951 and with a high of 1.3044. Today, German CPI is expected at 0.3% cs. 0.1% previous.
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Thu Jul 29, 2010 8:19 am |
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Adria.John
Preferred Member
Cash: $ 32.60
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Joined: 20 Apr 2010
Location: UK
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Overall, EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.2951 and with a high of 1.3044. Today, German CPI is expected at 0.3% cs. 0.1% previous.
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Thu Jul 29, 2010 8:20 am |
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Traders-Live
Contributing Member
Cash: $ 9.10
Posts: 44
Joined: 06 Jul 2010
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| EUR/USD Analysis |
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EUR/USD
Weekly Trend direction: Bullish
Weekly trend reversal level: 1.2732
Key G7 support levels: 1.2900, 1.2850, 1.2780/2800, 1.2720
Counter-trend and scalping opportunities: 1.2980 – 1.3050
Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.
Today's trade suggestion:
Little has changed since last week, as the Euro has been in a broad sideways range for much of the last week. Support levels are listed above and we’ll continue to look to buy the Euro into dips, with an unchanged strategy. There is a word of caution: It is very possible that we’ll retrace and correct back to the weekly downward trend line, which now acts as a support. Today, this lies at roughly 1.2520, which is below the weekly reversal level. As bullish momentum has slowed somewhat and the danger of a consolidation/correction is increasing, we’ll allow for some careful trend and counter-trend trading if the opportunity arises. Watch for potential topping at 1.2980/1.3000
Update:
Very little change, as the euro popped its head up briefly above 1.3000, and then back to the range. We’ll have to wait and see if we get another rally from here. The strategy remains unchanged, apart from small adjustments to the support levels above. Probably best to focus on trading in the direction of the bullish trend
today.
Summary: Buy dips to support levels listed above after a clear G7 entry signal, allowing for a retracement as faras 1.2630. First target 1.3000 and then 1.3120.
EUR/USD Hourly chart:
Traders-Live
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Fri Jul 30, 2010 7:43 am |
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Traders-Live
Contributing Member
Cash: $ 9.10
Posts: 44
Joined: 06 Jul 2010
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| The Sad Facts Continued |
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Due to a technical problem I was unable to post this yesterday, but here it is
This last scenario was based on 200 pips per month and no losing months, at a 5:1 leverage. We have already discussed leverage, but let me remind you that this means 5 mini lots per trade position per $10,000 in your trade account, or 5 100k lots per trade position per $100,000 in your full account.
As you can see, I have even allowed for a deduction of $100 per month for subscription fees!
The account grows from a starting balance of $10,000 to a final balance of $88,200 after two years!
Yes, that’s eighty eight thousand two hundred dollars after two years!
This has been achieved at a conservative 200 pips a month with a very safe leverage of only 5:1, and you can see that most of the growth has come about through sensible growth and re-investing profits at a safe rate of return.
That’s the power of compounding!
Note how the number of lots traded grows as the account balance grows, enabling you to make more money from the money you have already made. If you push the projection out for just one more year, the profits are an amazing $274,200!!
Well, if only it were as simple as that. The problem is that not every month is a winner (although 100% are at this time) and we don’t make 200 pips every other month. The good news is that we actually make over 300 pips per month most of the time, and the bad news is that we must allow for losing months.
Ok, so let’s look at scenario 2 – a more realistic picture of what might be achieved. I have changed the winning months to 300 pips each (compare this to the actual results in the table on the first page) and have also allowed for three losing months of -350 pips each. Let’s look at the more realistic Scenario 2:
Traders-Live
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Fri Jul 30, 2010 9:54 am |
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